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Zwolle vs Ajax

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle
Sun, Aug 9, 2026
VS
12:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Zwolle host Ajax in the Eredivisie. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Ajax have shipped 1.13 goals a game lately, while Zwolle have conceded 1.14 and scored 0.86. Head-to-head, Zwolle have won 1 to Ajax's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 1, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (0.99 - 1.19) back Ajax to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Zwolle
22%
Draws
60%
Ajax
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Ajax

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Ajax carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Ajax's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Eredivisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Zwolle Clean Sheet 20%
Ajax Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zwolle Ajax
Matches Played 28 33
Wins 9 15
Draws 7 11
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 0.86 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.86 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.14 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Eredivisie
Zwolle vs Ajax
0:0
Sep 13, 2025 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Zwolle
3:1
Mar 9, 2025 Eredivisie
Zwolle vs Ajax
0:1
Nov 24, 2024 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Zwolle
2:0
Jul 5, 2024 Club Friendly
Ajax vs Zwolle
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zwolle 20 / 100
Ajax 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zwolle Ajax

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AJA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:9
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zwolle found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

Ajax has conceded goals in 67% of their last 33 outings.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Recent resilience: Zwolle stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Zwolle VS Ajax
0.86 Goals Scored 1.25
1.14 Goals Conceded 1.13
43% Over 1.5 75%
29% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Zwolle

(Home)
18 Jul
Zwolle
3 : 2
Cercle Brugge
11 Jul
Zwolle
0 : 1
Al Jazira
17 May
Zwolle
0 : 2
Feyenoord
10 May
Sittard
3 : 2
Zwolle
03 May
Zwolle
1 : 0
Heracles
Page 1 of 6

Ajax

(Away)
23 Jul
Vojvodina
1 : 4
Ajax
18 Jul
Ajax
1 : 0
Olympiacos Piraeus
15 Jul
Ajax
1 : 1
Bochum
10 Jul
Ajax
1 : 0
AEK Larnaca
04 Jul
Ajax
1 : 3
Panathinaikos
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Cambuur00000:00
2Sittard00000:00
3Telstar00000:00
4Zwolle00000:00
5PSV00000:00
6Ajax00000:00
7Twente00000:00
8Heerenveen00000:00
9Feyenoord00000:00
10Nijmegen00000:00
11Utrecht00000:00
12AZ Alkmaar00000:00
13Sparta Rotterdam00000:00
14Willem II00000:00
15Excelsior00000:00
16Den Haag00000:00
17G.A. Eagles00000:00
18Groningen00000:00
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)