Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Zwolle vs Ajax

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Ouazane A.
57'
Floranus S.
60'
Sub
Cissoko I. In: van der Haar D.
Out: Cissoko I.

AI Match Summary

The Eredivisie game between Zwolle and Ajax finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ajax.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Zwolle
20%
Draws
57%
Ajax
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ajax

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Ajax carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Ajax's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Eredivisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Ajax here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Zwolle Clean Sheet 10%
Ajax Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zwolle Ajax
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 7 17
Draws 7 9
Losses 16 5
Goals Scored 1.2 2.19
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Eredivisie
Zwolle vs Ajax
0:2
Mar 1, 2026 Eredivisie
Zwolle vs Ajax
0:0
Sep 13, 2025 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Zwolle
3:1
Mar 9, 2025 Eredivisie
Zwolle vs Ajax
0:1
Nov 24, 2024 Eredivisie
Ajax vs Zwolle
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zwolle Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Ajax Compare

Top Goalscorer Mokio J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Brandt J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.73
Avg xA / game 1.67

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zwolle 10 / 100
Ajax 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zwolle Ajax

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ajax Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Zwolle scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Ajax let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Zwolle went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Zwolle VS Ajax
0.75 Goals Scored 3.13
2.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Zwolle

(Home)
18 Sept
Groningen
3 : 0
Zwolle
13 Sept
Zwolle
0 : 7
Feyenoord
04 Sept
Sparta Rotterdam
2 : 2
Zwolle
29 Aug
Zwolle
1 : 3
Nijmegen
22 Aug
Heerenveen
0 : 2
Zwolle
Page 1 of 6

Ajax

(Away)
19 Sept
Ajax
2 : 2
Excelsior
15 Sept
Ajax
5 : 1
Willem II
12 Sept
Sittard
1 : 5
Ajax
05 Sept
Ajax
1 : 3
PSV
30 Aug
Telstar
0 : 4
Ajax
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AZ Alkmaar 7 6 1 0 18:6 19
2 Feyenoord 7 5 2 0 25:7 17
3 PSV 7 5 1 1 24:10 16
4 Twente 7 5 1 1 15:7 16
5 Ajax 7 4 2 1 21:9 14
6 Sittard 7 4 1 2 13:14 13
7 Excelsior 7 3 2 2 15:9 11
8 Groningen 7 3 2 2 15:13 11
9 G.A. Eagles 7 2 4 1 16:14 10
10 Heerenveen 7 2 3 2 11:9 9
11 Nijmegen 7 2 2 3 12:13 8
12 Sparta Rotterdam 7 1 2 4 10:17 5
13 Telstar 7 1 2 4 5:12 5
14 Cambuur 7 1 2 4 10:19 5
15 Utrecht 7 1 2 4 11:24 5
16 Zwolle 7 1 1 5 6:20 4
17 Den Haag 7 0 2 5 7:17 2
18 Willem II 7 0 2 5 6:20 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)