Sport Picks

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12 de Octubre vs Sportivo Carapegua

Paraguay Paraguay

Division Intermedia 2023 Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio, Itauguá
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Armoa J.
8'
Vera R.
21' Event
Parris M.

AI Match Summary

The Division Intermedia 2023 game between 12 de Octubre and Sportivo Carapegua finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sportivo Carapegua.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
12 de Octubre
44%
Draws
20%
Sportivo Carapegua
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • 12 de Octubre haven't matched Sportivo Carapegua's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
12 de Octubre Clean Sheet 20%
Sportivo Carapegua Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric 12 de Octubre Sportivo Carapegua
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 4 8
Draws 7 9
Losses 19 14
Goals Scored 0.5 1.38
Goals Conceded 1 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2023 Division Intermedia
12 de Octubre vs Sportivo Carapegua
2:3
May 6, 2023 Division Intermedia
Sportivo Carapegua vs 12 de Octubre
3:0
Aug 22, 2015 Division Intermedia
Sportivo Carapegua vs 12 de Octubre
1:1
May 17, 2015 Division Intermedia
12 de Octubre vs Sportivo Carapegua
2:2
Sep 3, 2011 Division Intermedia
12 de Octubre vs Sportivo Carapegua
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

12 de Octubre Compare

Top Goalscorer Armoa J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Sportivo Carapegua Compare

Top Goalscorer Parris M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gimenez A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

12 de Octubre 36 / 100
Sportivo Carapegua 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
12 de Octubre Sportivo Carapegua

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sportivo Carapegua has conceded goals in 87% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Attacking prowess: 12 de Octubre scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

12 de Octubre has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

12 de Octubre VS Sportivo Carapegua
0.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
50% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

12 de Octubre

(Home)
22 Oct
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 0
12 de Octubre
01 Oct
12 de Octubre
1 : 0
Tacuary
02 Sept
12 de Octubre
3 : 1
Guarani de Fram
06 Oct
Sol de America
6 : 0
12 de Octubre
02 Oct
12 de Octubre
1 : 2
3 de Febrero
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Sportivo Carapegua

(Away)
26 Jul
Sportivo Carapegua
1 : 2
General Caballero JLM
18 Jul
Sportivo Carapegua
2 : 1
Guairena FC
10 Jul
Resistencia
1 : 1
Sportivo Carapegua
05 Jul
Sportivo Carapegua
1 : 1
Sol de America
27 Jun
Deportivo Capiata
5 : 2
Sportivo Carapegua
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sol de America30214546:2567
22 de Mayo30169546:2357
3Independiente FBC30149753:3551
4Recoleta30156959:4551
5Fernando de la Mora301461040:3148
6Rubio Nu301281042:4444
7Deportivo Santani301281041:4344
8Sportivo Carapegua301110943:3143
9Pastoreo301110937:3143
10San Lorenzo301191035:2742
113 de Febrero301161339:4239
12Colegiales30951629:4432
13Martin Ledesma30871530:4131
1424 de Setiembre30781538:5229
15Atyra30751832:5826
1612 de Octubre30282024:6214
Promotion - Primera Division 2024 (Apertura)