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7 de Setembro vs Aguia Negra

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Sul-Matogrossense 2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aguia Negra in this Campeonato Sul-Matogrossense 2019 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
7 de Setembro
30%
Draws
12%
Aguia Negra
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: 7 de Setembro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: 7 de Setembro at 1.68 per game, Aguia Negra at 1.48.
  • Model gives 7 de Setembro a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Aguia Negra, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Aguia Negra here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
7 de Setembro Clean Sheet 20%
Aguia Negra Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric 7 de Setembro Aguia Negra
Matches Played 28 33
Wins 12 12
Draws 7 10
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.68 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 13, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense 2
7 de Setembro vs Aguia Negra
3:1
Sep 8, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Aguia Negra vs 7 de Setembro
3:1
Apr 7, 2019 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs 7 de Setembro
2:1
Apr 3, 2019 Sul-Matogrossense
7 de Setembro vs Aguia Negra
1:3
Jan 20, 2019 Sul-Matogrossense
7 de Setembro vs Aguia Negra
0:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

7 de Setembro 85 / 100
Aguia Negra 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
7 de Setembro Aguia Negra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick 7 de Setembro Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguia Negra let in goals in 82% of their last 33 matches.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: 7 de Setembro scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: 7 de Setembro remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

7 de Setembro VS Aguia Negra
1.71 Goals Scored 1.13
0.86 Goals Conceded 1.5
86% Over 1.5 75%
57% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

7 de Setembro

(Home)
02 Aug
7 de Setembro
4 : 0
Sao Gabriel MS
25 Jul
Uniao ABC
0 : 0
7 de Setembro
17 Jul
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
0 : 3
7 de Setembro
11 Jul
Aquidauanense
2 : 0
7 de Setembro
04 Jul
7 de Setembro
3 : 1
Misto
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Aguia Negra

(Away)
01 Mar
Aguia Negra
1 : 2
Naviraiense
22 Feb
Ivinhema
2 : 1
Aguia Negra
15 Feb
Aguia Negra
1 : 1
Corumbaense
11 Feb
Aguia Negra
1 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
08 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Aguia Negra
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Aquidauanense 2
Operario MS 1
Corumbaense 2
Comercial MS 2
7 de Setembro 3
Costa Rica 1
Chapadao 1
Aguia Negra 2
Semi-finals
Aquidauanense 2
Comercial MS 1
7 de Setembro 2
Aguia Negra 5
Final
Aquidauanense 2
Aguia Negra 2