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AA Carapebus vs Serra Macaense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2 2024
AA Carapebus Logo

AA Carapebus

1 - 1
FT
Serra Macaense Logo

Serra Macaense

Our Tip

Match Events

60' Event
Wandinho
90' Event
Pedrinho
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B2 2024 game between AA Carapebus and Serra Macaense finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
AA Carapebus
20%
Draws
70%
Serra Macaense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Serra Macaense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Serra Macaense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Serra Macaense a 70% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Carioca B2 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
AA Carapebus Clean Sheet 16%
Serra Macaense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AA Carapebus Serra Macaense
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 11
Draws 6 10
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.11 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 17, 2024 Carioca B2
AA Carapebus vs Serra Macaense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AA Carapebus Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedrinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Serra Macaense Compare

Top Goalscorer Wandinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AA Carapebus 10 / 100
Serra Macaense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AA Carapebus Serra Macaense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serra Macaense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serra Macaense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

AA Carapebus scored in 54% of their last 28 games.

Recent resilience: AA Carapebus stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AA Carapebus VS Serra Macaense
0.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AA Carapebus

(Home)
25 Sept
AA Carapebus
0 : 1
Sao Cristovao
19 Sept
Artsul
0 : 0
AA Carapebus
11 Sept
AA Carapebus
1 : 4
Duque de Caxias
05 Sept
Campo Grande
1 : 0
AA Carapebus
08 Nov
AA Carapebus
0 : 2
Duque de Caxias
Page 1 of 6

Serra Macaense

(Away)
27 Sept
Serra Macaense
2 : 1
FC Rio de Janeiro
20 Sept
Buzios
0 : 3
Serra Macaense
13 Sept
Serra Macaense
1 : 2
Paduano EC
07 Sept
7 de Abril
2 : 2
Serra Macaense
30 Aug
Serra Macaense
0 : 1
Friburguense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Campo Grande 11 8 2 1 23:6 26
2 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 20:5 22
3 Niteroiense 11 6 3 2 19:12 21
4 AA Carapebus 11 6 2 3 23:11 20
5 Serra Macaense 11 4 5 2 10:7 17
6 Zinza 11 4 4 3 13:8 16
7 Barra Mansa 11 4 3 4 12:10 15
8 Uni Souza 11 4 3 4 13:18 15
9 7 de Abril 11 2 4 5 12:13 10
10 FC Rio de Janeiro 11 2 2 7 12:23 8
11 Mageense 11 2 0 9 11:30 6
12 Rio Sao Paulo 11 2 0 9 8:33 6
Promotion - Carioca B2 2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C 2025 (Main)