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Aalesund vs Start - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Norway Norway

Eliteserien Color Line Stadion, Ålesund
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Mbacke D.
20' Event
Hagen E.
24' Event
Christensen M.
Assist: Kartum S.

AI Match Summary

The Eliteserien game between Aalesund and Start finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aalesund.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Aalesund
15%
Draws
49%
Start
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Start

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aalesund come out ahead of Start on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Aalesund Clean Sheet 10%
Start Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aalesund Start
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 9 5
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 2.28 1.31
Goals Conceded 2.03 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 Eliteserien
Aalesund vs Start
2:0
Mar 21, 2026 Eliteserien
Start vs Aalesund
1:1
Aug 23, 2025 OBOS-ligaen
Start vs Aalesund
3:1
May 24, 2025 OBOS-ligaen
Aalesund vs Start
1:1
Oct 21, 2024 OBOS-ligaen
Aalesund vs Start
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aalesund Compare

Top Goalscorer Hagen E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Christensen M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Start Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aalesund 34 / 100
Start 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aalesund Start

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Start Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:6
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Aalesund scored in 93% of their last 29 outings.

Start let in goals in 93% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Aalesund went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aalesund VS Start
3.63 Goals Scored 1.38
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aalesund

(Home)
19 Sept
Molde
1 : 2
Aalesund
16 Sept
Forde
3 : 4
Aalesund
13 Sept
KFUM Oslo
2 : 1
Aalesund
04 Sept
Aalesund
2 : 0
Start
30 Aug
Viking
2 : 1
Aalesund
Page 1 of 6

Start

(Away)
06 Oct
Raufoss
1 : 5
Start
02 Oct
Start
2 : 1
Brann
20 Sept
Sandefjord
3 : 0
Start
16 Sept
Vindbjart
2 : 3
Start
13 Sept
Start
2 : 0
Brann
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Viking 21 16 2 3 54:20 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 16 2 3 53:19 50
3 Tromso 21 11 5 5 40:29 38
4 Molde 21 11 3 7 44:32 36
5 Rosenborg 21 10 3 8 39:30 33
6 Lillestrom 21 10 2 9 28:29 32
7 Brann 21 9 2 10 39:32 29
8 Fredrikstad 21 8 4 9 25:32 28
9 Sarpsborg 08 21 6 7 8 24:29 25
10 KFUM Oslo 21 7 4 10 25:35 25
11 Sandefjord 21 6 5 10 21:27 23
12 Valerenga 21 6 5 10 34:43 23
13 Ham-Kam 21 6 5 10 29:44 23
14 Aalesund 21 4 9 8 33:46 21
15 Kristiansund 21 5 4 12 21:40 19
16 Start 21 4 4 13 22:44 16
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen 2027 (Main)