Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aalesund vs Start

Norway Norway

Eliteserien Color Line Stadion, Ålesund
Fri, Sep 4, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aalesund host Start in the Eliteserien. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Aalesund have averaged 1.72 scored and 2.07 conceded recently, against Start's 1.17 scored and 1.97 conceded. Past meetings favor Aalesund slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 21, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.88 - 1.56) back Aalesund to edge this. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Aalesund
30%
Draws
35%
Start
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aalesund come out ahead of Start on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Aalesund Clean Sheet 15%
Start Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aalesund Start
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 7
Draws 9 6
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.72 1.17
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Eliteserien
Start vs Aalesund
1:1
Aug 23, 2025 OBOS-ligaen
Start vs Aalesund
3:1
May 24, 2025 OBOS-ligaen
Aalesund vs Start
1:1
Oct 21, 2024 OBOS-ligaen
Aalesund vs Start
3:1
Apr 6, 2024 OBOS-ligaen
Start vs Aalesund
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aalesund 31 / 100
Start 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aalesund Start

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Aalesund scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Start let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Aalesund went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aalesund VS Start
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
2.38 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Aalesund

(Home)
16 Aug
Aalesund
5 : 5
Valerenga
09 Aug
Ham-Kam
1 : 1
Aalesund
02 Aug
Aalesund
2 : 6
Tromso
26 Jul
Aalesund
1 : 1
Viking
16 Jul
Valerenga
6 : 1
Aalesund
Page 1 of 6

Start

(Away)
08 Aug
Start
0 : 1
Fredrikstad
01 Aug
Start
0 : 3
Viking
25 Jul
Kristiansund
1 : 2
Start
18 Jul
Start
0 : 3
Rosenborg
12 Jul
Brann
2 : 1
Start
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bodo/Glimt 17 13 2 2 43:12 41
2 Viking 17 13 1 3 40:17 40
3 Tromso 17 10 4 3 34:20 34
4 Molde 17 8 3 6 32:26 27
5 Lillestrom 17 8 2 7 23:21 26
6 Brann 17 8 1 8 36:27 25
7 Rosenborg 17 7 3 7 25:22 24
8 Fredrikstad 17 7 2 8 18:27 23
9 Sarpsborg 08 17 6 4 7 20:23 22
10 Ham-Kam 17 6 4 7 24:30 22
11 Valerenga 17 6 3 8 28:34 21
12 KFUM Oslo 17 5 4 8 19:27 19
13 Sandefjord 17 5 3 9 15:23 18
14 Kristiansund 17 4 3 10 15:27 15
15 Aalesund 17 2 9 6 27:41 15
16 Start 17 2 4 11 16:38 10
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen 2027 (Main)