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Aalesund vs Tromso - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Norway Norway

Eliteserien Color Line Stadion, Ålesund
Aalesund Logo

Aalesund

2 - 6
FT
Tromso Logo

Tromso

Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Tonnessen M.
9' Event
Edvardsson D.
Assist: Nyhammer T.
42' Event
Vadebu I.
Own Goal
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tromso in this Eliteserien matchup, with the score ending 2-6 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tromso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Aalesund
15%
Draws
37%
Tromso
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aalesund

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Tromso have won more games recently than Aalesund.
  • Aalesund are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Eliteserien form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Aalesund Clean Sheet 14%
Tromso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aalesund Tromso
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 10 13
Draws 9 6
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 2.28 1.89
Goals Conceded 2.03 1.44
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Eliteserien
Aalesund vs Tromso
2:6
May 25, 2026 Eliteserien
Tromso vs Aalesund
1:1
Mar 8, 2025 Club Friendly
Tromso vs Aalesund
0:1
Oct 8, 2023 Eliteserien
Tromso vs Aalesund
1:2
Jun 11, 2023 Eliteserien
Aalesund vs Tromso
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aalesund Compare

Top Goalscorer Osenbroch E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Tromso Compare

Top Goalscorer Thongla-Iad Warneryd A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Edvardsson D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aalesund 57 / 100
Tromso 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aalesund Tromso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aalesund Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aalesund scored in 93% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Tromso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 27 matches.

Aalesund has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Aalesund VS Tromso
3.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Aalesund

(Home)
19 Sept
Molde
1 : 2
Aalesund
16 Sept
Forde
3 : 4
Aalesund
13 Sept
KFUM Oslo
2 : 1
Aalesund
04 Sept
Aalesund
2 : 0
Start
30 Aug
Viking
2 : 1
Aalesund
Page 1 of 6

Tromso

(Away)
20 Sept
Tromso
3 : 2
Ham-Kam
16 Sept
Alta
1 : 2
Tromso
12 Sept
Rosenborg
5 : 3
Tromso
06 Sept
Kristiansund
2 : 0
Tromso
30 Aug
Tromso
0 : 0
Sarpsborg 08
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Viking 21 16 2 3 54:20 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 16 2 3 53:19 50
3 Tromso 21 11 5 5 40:29 38
4 Molde 21 11 3 7 44:32 36
5 Rosenborg 21 10 3 8 39:30 33
6 Lillestrom 21 10 2 9 28:29 32
7 Brann 21 9 2 10 39:32 29
8 Fredrikstad 21 8 4 9 25:32 28
9 Sarpsborg 08 21 6 7 8 24:29 25
10 KFUM Oslo 21 7 4 10 25:35 25
11 Sandefjord 21 6 5 10 21:27 23
12 Valerenga 21 6 5 10 34:43 23
13 Ham-Kam 21 6 5 10 29:44 23
14 Aalesund 21 4 9 8 33:46 21
15 Kristiansund 21 5 4 12 21:40 19
16 Start 21 4 4 13 22:44 16
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen 2027 (Main)