Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aarau vs Rapperswil-Jona

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League Stadion Brügglifeld, Aarau
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Mupemba N.
Assist: Le Pogam W.
31'
Petit-Viretti V.
42'
Sub
Bakayoko A. In: Diarrassouba S.
Out: Bakayoko A.

AI Match Summary

Aarau in this Challenge League matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aarau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Aarau
20%
Draws
51%
Rapperswil-Jona
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Rapperswil-Jona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Rapperswil-Jona have won more games recently than Aarau.
  • 29% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Challenge League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Aarau here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.6%
Aarau Clean Sheet 20%
Rapperswil-Jona Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aarau Rapperswil-Jona
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 14
Draws 8 3
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.87 2.1
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Rapperswil-Jona
3:2
Apr 4, 2026 Challenge League
Rapperswil-Jona vs Aarau
4:5
Feb 27, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Rapperswil-Jona
5:3
Nov 1, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Rapperswil-Jona
2:1
Aug 29, 2025 Challenge League
Rapperswil-Jona vs Aarau
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Afriyie D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vladi S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Rapperswil-Jona Compare

Top Goalscorer Mupemba N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Senaya E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aarau 31 / 100
Rapperswil-Jona 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aarau Rapperswil-Jona

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aarau Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aarau found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Rapperswil-Jona let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 5.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Aarau stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aarau VS Rapperswil-Jona
2.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aarau

(Home)
02 Oct
Aarau
1 : 2
Young Boys
24 Sept
Grasshoppers
4 : 1
Aarau
18 Sept
Winterthur
2 : 1
Aarau
12 Sept
Aarau
2 : 2
Kriens
04 Sept
Aarau
3 : 2
Rapperswil-Jona
Page 1 of 6

Rapperswil-Jona

(Away)
18 Sept
Xamax
0 : 3
Rapperswil-Jona
11 Sept
Rapperswil-Jona
2 : 0
Yverdon
04 Sept
Aarau
3 : 2
Rapperswil-Jona
01 Sept
Rapperswil-Jona
1 : 1
Kriens
28 Aug
Etoile-Carouge
2 : 1
Rapperswil-Jona
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lausanne Ouchy 9 6 3 0 17:3 21
2 Winterthur 9 5 3 1 19:8 18
3 Yverdon 9 4 4 1 14:9 16
4 Kriens 9 4 2 3 16:11 14
5 Aarau 9 3 3 3 14:16 12
6 Xamax 9 4 0 5 12:17 12
7 Rapperswil-Jona 9 3 1 5 15:16 10
8 Etoile-Carouge 9 2 3 4 8:12 9
9 Wil 9 2 3 4 15:21 9
10 Stade Nyonnais 9 0 2 7 6:23 2
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Challenge League (Promotion)
Relegation - Promotion League 2027/2028 (Main)