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Aarau vs Vaduz

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League 2025/2026 Stadion Brügglifeld, Aarau
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Vladi S.
Assist: Fazliu V.
11' Event
Filet E.
Assist: Fazliu V.
46'
Sub
Berisha L. In: Lang N.
Out: Berisha L.

AI Match Summary

Aarau in this Challenge League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aarau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Aarau
20%
Draws
29%
Vaduz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aarau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Aarau haven't matched Vaduz's recent run of results.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Aarau taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Aarau Clean Sheet 14%
Vaduz Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aarau Vaduz
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 14 18
Draws 7 4
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.93 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2026 Challenge League
Vaduz vs Aarau
1:2
Mar 13, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Vaduz
2:0
Dec 19, 2025 Challenge League
Vaduz vs Aarau
3:2
Sep 13, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Vaduz
1:0
Apr 18, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Vaduz
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Vladi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Filet E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Vaduz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aarau 41 / 100
Vaduz 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aarau Vaduz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Aarau scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Vaduz conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Aarau has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Aarau VS Vaduz
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aarau

(Home)
07 Aug
Aarau
2 : 1
Stade Nyonnais
01 Aug
Aarau
1 : 1
Lausanne Ouchy
24 Jul
Etoile-Carouge
3 : 0
Aarau
18 Jul
Aarau
2 : 1
Union Berlin
10 Jul
A. Lustenau
1 : 0
Aarau
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Vaduz

(Away)
13 Aug
Vaduz
2 : 2
Inter Turku
09 Aug
Sion
3 : 2
Vaduz
06 Aug
Inter Turku
2 : 1
Vaduz
02 Aug
Vaduz
2 : 3
St. Gallen
30 Jul
Atletic Escaldes
0 : 2
Vaduz
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vaduz 36 25 6 5 75:41 81
2 Aarau 36 25 5 6 77:47 80
3 Yverdon 36 20 7 9 75:48 67
4 Lausanne Ouchy 36 14 8 14 59:51 50
5 Xamax 36 14 7 15 55:56 49
6 Rapperswil-Jona 36 14 2 20 52:62 44
7 Etoile-Carouge 36 10 10 16 46:54 40
8 Wil 36 10 10 16 39:55 40
9 Stade Nyonnais 36 5 13 18 33:60 28
10 Bellinzona 36 5 8 23 40:77 23
Promotion - Super League (Main)
Promotion - Super League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Promotion League (Main)