Sport Picks
Abertillery Bluebirds vs Caerphilly
Wales
FA Cup 2023/2024 
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-1, with Abertillery Bluebirds advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
15%
85%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caerphilly
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Abertillery Bluebirds carry the better recent record into this one.
- 85% — that's where the model lands on Caerphilly taking it.
- Abertillery Bluebirds have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Abertillery Bluebirds, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Abertillery Bluebirds Clean Sheet 10%
Caerphilly Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Abertillery Bluebirds | Caerphilly |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 13 |
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 6 | 2 |
| Losses | 18 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.21 | 1.23 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.97 | 2.15 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 2.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 16, 2023 FAW Welsh Cup
Abertillery Bluebirds vs Caerphilly
2:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Abertillery Bluebirds 10 / 100
Caerphilly 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Abertillery Bluebirds Caerphilly
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Caerphilly Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Abertillery Bluebirds scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.
Caerphilly's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 13 matches.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Caerphilly's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
Abertillery Bluebirds VS Caerphilly
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
4.13 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Abertillery Bluebirds
(Home) 21 Sept
New Inn
2 : 1 Abertillery Bluebirds
20 Apr
Abertillery Bluebirds
2 : 5 Afan Lido
16 Apr
Caerau Ely
5 : 3 Abertillery Bluebirds
13 Apr
Abertillery Bluebirds
0 : 7 Ammanford Town
29 Mar
Cambrian United
5 : 2 Abertillery Bluebirds
Page 1 of 6
20 Apr
Abertillery Bluebirds
2 : 5 Afan Lido
13 Apr
Abertillery Bluebirds
0 : 7 Ammanford Town
23 Mar
Abertillery Bluebirds
2 : 5 Trefelin
09 Mar
Abertillery Bluebirds
0 : 4 Goytre Utd
24 Feb
Abertillery Bluebirds
2 : 0 Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 3
Caerphilly
(Away) 25 Sept
Caerphilly
1 : 2 Pontypridd United
12 Sept
Caerphilly
2 : 3 Aberystwyth
04 Sept
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 2 Caerphilly
31 Aug
Baglan Dragons
0 : 1 Caerphilly
22 Aug
Caerphilly
2 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
Page 1 of 3
04 Sept
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 2 Caerphilly
31 Aug
Baglan Dragons
0 : 1 Caerphilly
15 Aug
Treowen
3 : 0 Caerphilly
01 Aug
Pontardawe
3 : 0 Caerphilly
16 Sept
Abertillery Bluebirds
2 : 1 Caerphilly
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Penrhyncoch 2
Chirk AAA FC 4
Porthmadog 3
Glantraeth FC 0
Newport City 0
Abergavenny Town 2
Cardiff Airport 3
Cefn Fforest 1
Rhyl 1
Menai Bridge Tigers 2
Tregaron Turfs 2
Llanuwchllyn 10
Corwen 0
Bow Street 4
TBD -
Buckley -
Penparcau FC 0
Cefn Albion 1
Holyhead 0
Bangor 1876 4
Cerrigydrudion 2
Denbigh 4
TBD -
Flint Town -
Connahs Q. -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
St. Asaph 1
Llandudno Junction 0
TBD -
Prestatyn -
Cardiff Corries 2
Caerau Ely 3
TBD -
Afan Lido -
Llanidloes Town 5
Builth 4
Radnor Valley 0
Gresford 4
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Pontardawe -
Bala -
TBD -
TBD -
Llandudno FC -
NFA 0
Flint Mountain 3
TBD -
Holywell Town FC -
Canton 3
Sully Sports 1
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Penydarren 2
South Gower AFC 3
Rockspur 4
Afan United 2
Chepstow Town 7
Pill 0
Abercarn United 4
St Albans 1
Haverfordwest -
TBD -
Baglan Dragons 5
Cwmaman Institute 1
Goytre Utd 1
Trefelin 3
Ammanford Town 1
Taffs Well 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
Aber Valley 2
Cwmbran Town 3
Mochdre Sports 0
Nantlle Vale FC 2
Mold Alexandra 13
Montgomery 1
Pwllheli 1
Felinheli 2
TBD -
Newtown -
Colwyn Bay -
TBD -
Llanrwst United 2
Conwy Borough 1
Barry Town -
TBD -
Treharris Athletic 1
Porthcawl Town 2
Brickfield Rangers 3
Caersws FC 1
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
TBD -
Penycae FC 1
Rhos Aelwyd 4
Aberfan 2
Pontyclun FC 1
TBD -
Briton Ferry -
Llanelli -
TBD -
TBD -
Llantwit Major -
Cwmbran Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
Mumbles Rangers 1
Evans Williams 2
Pontypridd United -
TBD -
Abertillery Bluebirds 2
Caerphilly 1
Ruthin Town -
TBD -
TBD -
TNS -
Trethomas Bluebirds 4
Ely Rangers 1
Llantwit Fardre 3
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 4
1/32-finals
Chirk AAA FC 1
Porthmadog 2
Abergavenny Town 1
Cardiff Airport 3
Menai Bridge Tigers 0
Llanuwchllyn 2
Bow Street 2
Buckley 3
Cefn Albion 1
Bangor 1876 7
Denbigh 0
Flint Town 3
Connahs Q. 4
Caernarfon 1
St. Asaph 0
Prestatyn 1
Caerau Ely 4
Afan Lido 0
Llanidloes Town 1
Gresford 3
Aberystwyth 2
Pontardawe 1
Bala 3
Llandudno FC 0
Flint Mountain 3
Holywell Town FC 1
Canton 2
Cambrian United 1
South Gower AFC 1
Rockspur 0
Chepstow Town 4
Abercarn United 0
Haverfordwest 1
Baglan Dragons 0
Trefelin 2
Ammanford Town 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 4
Cwmbran Town 0
Nantlle Vale FC 2
Mold Alexandra 3
Felinheli 0
Newtown 6
Colwyn Bay 6
Llanrwst United 2
Barry Town 6
Porthcawl Town 0
Brickfield Rangers 2
Guilsfield 7
Airbus UK Broughton FC 4
Rhos Aelwyd 0
Aberfan 0
Briton Ferry 3
Llanelli 4
Llantwit Major 0
Cwmbran Celtic 0
Penybont 3
Carmarthen Town 2
Evans Williams 0
Pontypridd United -
Abertillery Bluebirds -
Ruthin Town 0
TNS 5
Trethomas Bluebirds 6
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 1
1/16-finals
Porthmadog 5
Cardiff Airport 1
Llanuwchllyn 1
Buckley 2
Bangor 1876 1
Flint Town 2
Connahs Q. 8
Prestatyn 0
Caerau Ely 4
Gresford 3
Aberystwyth 0
Bala 1
Flint Mountain 2
Canton 1
South Gower AFC 3
Chepstow Town 2
Haverfordwest 2
Ammanford Town 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Mold Alexandra 1
Newtown 1
Colwyn Bay 2
Barry Town 1
Guilsfield 0
Airbus UK Broughton FC 1
Briton Ferry 2
Llanelli 4
Penybont 3
Carmarthen Town 4
Abertillery Bluebirds 2
TNS 7
Trethomas Bluebirds 0
1/8-finals
Porthmadog 0
Buckley 2
Flint Town 0
Connahs Q. 3
Caerau Ely 1
Bala 4
Flint Mountain 2
South Gower AFC 1
Haverfordwest 1
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Colwyn Bay 2
Barry Town 0
Briton Ferry 1
Llanelli 0
Carmarthen Town 0
TNS 3
Quarter-finals
Buckley 1
Connahs Q. 4
Bala 3
Flint Mountain 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 3
Colwyn Bay 2
Briton Ferry 1
TNS 5
Semi-finals
Connahs Q. 1
Bala 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
TNS 6
Final
Connahs Q. 2
TNS 1
