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Aberystwyth vs Pontardawe

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Fri, Aug 28, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aberystwyth host Pontardawe in the Cymru South. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Aberystwyth have averaged 1.46 scored and 1.54 conceded recently, against Pontardawe's 1.5 scored and 2.33 conceded. Head-to-head, Aberystwyth have won 1 to Pontardawe's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Oct 14, 2023, ending 2:1. xG projections (1.31 - 1.35) back Aberystwyth to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Aberystwyth
15%
Draws
26%
Pontardawe
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aberystwyth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Pontardawe haven't matched Aberystwyth's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Aberystwyth a 59% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Cymru South form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 46.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Aberystwyth Clean Sheet 18%
Pontardawe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aberystwyth Pontardawe
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 13 8
Draws 3 6
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.46 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.54 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.35
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 14, 2023 FA Cup
Aberystwyth vs Pontardawe
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aberystwyth 85 / 100
Pontardawe 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aberystwyth Pontardawe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aberystwyth Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pontardawe has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Aberystwyth found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Aberystwyth has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Aberystwyth VS Pontardawe
0.75 Goals Scored 0.71
2 Goals Conceded 1.86
75% Over 1.5 57%
63% Over 2.5 57%
50% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Aberystwyth

(Home)
22 Aug
Aberystwyth
5 : 1
Llantwit Major
08 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 2
Treowen
01 Aug
Afan Lido
2 : 5
Aberystwyth
18 Apr
Ynyshir Albions
0 : 0
Aberystwyth
11 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
3 : 1
Aberystwyth
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Pontardawe

(Away)
21 Aug
Afan Lido
1 : 0
Pontardawe
15 Aug
Pontardawe
0 : 4
Newport City
07 Aug
Pontypridd United
3 : 2
Pontardawe
01 Aug
Pontardawe
3 : 0
Caerphilly
26 Jun
Cardiff Metropolitan University
5 : 0
Pontardawe
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 4 4 0 0 14:1 12
2 Pontypridd United 4 4 0 0 12:6 12
3 Treowen 4 3 0 1 11:6 9
4 Carmarthen Town 4 3 0 1 11:9 9
5 Baglan Dragons 4 2 1 1 2:3 7
6 Aberystwyth 3 2 0 1 11:5 6
7 Newport City 4 2 0 2 9:4 6
8 Afan Lido 4 2 0 2 9:8 6
9 Ynyshir Albions 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
10 Cardiff Draconians 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
11 Caerau Ely 4 1 1 2 9:12 4
12 Caerphilly 4 1 1 2 2:7 4
13 Pontardawe 4 1 0 3 5:8 3
14 Trethomas Bluebirds 4 0 2 2 4:7 2
15 Llanelli 4 0 1 3 4:12 1
16 Llantwit Major 4 0 0 4 1:14 0
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)