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Aberystwyth vs Pontardawe - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Owen D.

AI Match Summary

Aberystwyth in this Cymru South matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aberystwyth.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Aberystwyth
15%
Draws
27%
Pontardawe
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aberystwyth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Pontardawe haven't matched Aberystwyth's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Aberystwyth a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Cymru South form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Aberystwyth Clean Sheet 20%
Pontardawe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aberystwyth Pontardawe
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 15 7
Draws 4 6
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.66 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.28 2.36
Expected Goals (xG) 2.56 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Cymru South
Aberystwyth vs Pontardawe
1:0
Oct 14, 2023 FAW Welsh Cup
Aberystwyth vs Pontardawe
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aberystwyth Compare

Top Goalscorer Owen D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.97
Avg xA / game 1.28

Pontardawe Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aberystwyth 76 / 100
Pontardawe 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aberystwyth Pontardawe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aberystwyth Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pontardawe has conceded goals in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Aberystwyth remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Aberystwyth found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Aberystwyth VS Pontardawe
2.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Aberystwyth

(Home)
03 Oct
Pontypridd United
1 : 3
Aberystwyth
25 Sept
Aberystwyth
0 : 0
Pure Swansea
12 Sept
Caerphilly
2 : 3
Aberystwyth
31 Aug
Aberystwyth
4 : 0
Llanelli
28 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 0
Pontardawe
Page 1 of 6

Pontardawe

(Away)
03 Oct
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 3
Pontardawe
26 Sept
Pontardawe
6 : 1
Treowen
11 Sept
Pure Swansea
4 : 0
Pontardawe
28 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 0
Pontardawe
21 Aug
Afan Lido
1 : 0
Pontardawe
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 9 6 3 0 30:11 21
2 Aberystwyth 8 6 1 1 22:8 19
3 Pontypridd United 9 6 1 2 23:16 19
4 Caerau Ely 9 5 1 3 21:18 16
5 Baglan Dragons 10 5 1 4 11:11 16
6 Carmarthen Town 9 4 2 3 20:19 14
7 Ynyshir Albions 8 3 4 1 9:7 13
8 Treowen 9 4 1 4 18:18 13
9 Afan Lido 11 3 3 5 18:22 12
10 Caerphilly 10 3 2 5 12:19 11
11 Trethomas Bluebirds 9 2 4 3 17:17 10
12 Pontardawe 8 3 0 5 14:16 9
13 Newport City 8 2 2 4 12:9 8
14 Cardiff Draconians 7 2 2 3 9:12 8
15 Llantwit Major 8 2 1 5 7:20 7
16 Llanelli 10 0 2 8 7:27 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)