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AC Leon vs Pro Patria - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Coppa Italia Serie D
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Coppa Italia Serie D. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Pro Patria have shipped 1.72 goals a game lately, while AC Leon have conceded 1.14 and scored 1.34. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.06 vs 1.75, favoring AC Leon. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
AC Leon
30%
Draws
39%
Pro Patria
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pro Patria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to AC Leon lately — more wins on the board than Pro Patria.
  • Win probability leans Pro Patria's way, sitting at 40%.
  • AC Leon have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
AC Leon Clean Sheet 12%
Pro Patria Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AC Leon Pro Patria
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 9
Draws 8 6
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.34 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AC Leon 27 / 100
Pro Patria 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AC Leon Pro Patria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pro Patria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pro Patria let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

AC Leon scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

AC Leon went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Pro Patria registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AC Leon VS Pro Patria
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

AC Leon

(Home)
07 Oct
Real Calepina
0 : 2
AC Leon
04 Oct
Club Milano
1 : 2
AC Leon
27 Sept
AC Leon
1 : 2
Villa Valle
20 Sept
Rovato Vertovese
2 : 2
AC Leon
16 Sept
AC Leon
1 : 1
Piacenza
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Pro Patria

(Away)
07 Oct
Varese FC
2 : 5
Pro Patria
04 Oct
Varesina
0 : 0
Pro Patria
27 Sept
Pro Patria
0 : 1
Solbiatese
20 Sept
Arconatese
0 : 3
Pro Patria
16 Sept
Pro Patria
2 : 0
Crema
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
AS Biellese 3
Alessandria 2
Valenzana 3
Saluzzo 2
Villa Valle 2
Tritium 1
Brusaporto 2
Chievo 1
Real Calepina 0
AC Leon 2
Varese FC 2
Pro Patria 5
Pavia 1
Sant'Angelo 3
Sanremese 5
Millesimo 2
Cjarlins Muzane 2
Brian Lignano 1
Este 0
Caldiero Terme 2
Mestre 0
Schio 2
Clodiense 2
Campodarsego 1
Lentigione 1
Piacenza 3
Sasso Marconi 1
Cittadella Vis Modena 0
Sestri Levante 1
Pistoiese 0
Seravezza Pozzi 1
Lucchese 2
Terranuova Traiana 0
Prato 3
Ternana -
Recanatese -
Ancona 2
Fossombrone 1
Flaminia 0
Siena 3
Unipomezia 3
Teramo 4
Latte Dolce 3
Sarrabus Ogliastra 0
Aquila Calcio 5
Termoli 2
Paganese 1
Real Normanna 2
Certosa V. Campagnano 4
Albalonga 1
Nocerina 1
Turris 2
Fidelis Andria 2
Bisceglie 1
Virtus Francavilla 3
Gravina 0
Lamezia 2
Gelbison 3
Igea Virtus 3
Reggina 2
Calcio Avola 0
ASD Modica Calcio 4
Trapani 1
Licata 2
1/16-finals
AS Biellese -
Valenzana -
Villa Valle -
Brusaporto -
AC Leon -
Pro Patria -
Sant'Angelo -
Sanremese -
Cjarlins Muzane -
Caldiero Terme -
Schio -
Clodiense -
Piacenza -
Sasso Marconi -
Sestri Levante -
Lucchese -
Prato -
TBD -
Ancona -
Siena -
Teramo -
Latte Dolce -
Aquila Calcio -
Real Normanna -
Certosa V. Campagnano -
Turris -
Fidelis Andria -
Virtus Francavilla -
Gelbison -
Igea Virtus -
ASD Modica Calcio -
Licata -
1/8-finals
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Quarter-finals
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Semi-finals
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Final
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