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AC Leon vs Vogherese Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Panarello A.
15' Event
Gervasoni M.
17' Event
Bonseri M.

AI Match Summary

AC Leon in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored AC Leon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
AC Leon
30%
Draws
0%
Vogherese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AC Leon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Vogherese haven't matched AC Leon's recent run of results.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on AC Leon taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 66.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 30%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
AC Leon Clean Sheet 68%
Vogherese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AC Leon Vogherese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 2
Draws 9 6
Losses 8 22
Goals Scored 1.4 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.17 2.53
Expected Goals (xG) 3.23 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Serie D - Group B
AC Leon vs Vogherese
3:2
Nov 9, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Vogherese vs AC Leon
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AC Leon Compare

Top Goalscorer Bonseri M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Gervasoni M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.48
Avg xA / game 1.61

Vogherese Compare

Top Goalscorer Panarello A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Prinelli L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AC Leon 95 / 100
Vogherese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AC Leon Vogherese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AC Leon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vogherese has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.50 goals per match.

Vogherese lost 5 of their last 5 games.

AC Leon's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

AC Leon VS Vogherese
1.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 5.33
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 83%
50% Over 3.5 83%

Recent Form & Match History

AC Leon

(Home)
27 Sept
AC Leon
1 : 2
Villa Valle
20 Sept
Rovato Vertovese
2 : 2
AC Leon
16 Sept
AC Leon
1 : 1
Piacenza
12 Sept
Caldiero Terme
1 : 1
AC Leon
06 Sept
AC Leon
2 : 0
Brusaporto
Page 1 of 6

Vogherese

(Away)
03 May
AC Milan U23
10 : 1
Vogherese
26 Apr
Vogherese
0 : 6
Caldiero Terme
19 Apr
Ciserano-Bergamo
6 : 1
Vogherese
11 Apr
Vogherese
0 : 4
USD Casatese
02 Apr
Chievo
4 : 1
Vogherese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)