Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AC Libertas vs Juvenes/Dogana

San Marino San Marino

Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

69' Event
Tomassini F. R.
Assist: Severi F.

AI Match Summary

The Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 game between AC Libertas and Juvenes/Dogana finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AC Libertas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
AC Libertas
20%
Draws
30%
Juvenes/Dogana
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AC Libertas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • AC Libertas carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on AC Libertas taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
AC Libertas Clean Sheet 12%
Juvenes/Dogana Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AC Libertas Juvenes/Dogana
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 10 8
Draws 8 9
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.03 1.13
Goals Conceded 2.06 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
AC Libertas vs Juvenes/Dogana
2:1
Apr 29, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
Juvenes/Dogana vs AC Libertas
1:1
Apr 8, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
AC Libertas vs Juvenes/Dogana
1:0
Dec 6, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
Juvenes/Dogana vs AC Libertas
0:1
Jan 21, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
AC Libertas vs Juvenes/Dogana
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AC Libertas Compare

Top Goalscorer Tomassini F. R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Juvenes/Dogana Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AC Libertas 40 / 100
Juvenes/Dogana 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AC Libertas Juvenes/Dogana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AC Libertas found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (32 games).

Defensive concern: Juvenes/Dogana conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Solid form: AC Libertas remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

AC Libertas VS Juvenes/Dogana
0.75 Goals Scored 1
2.5 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

AC Libertas

(Home)
18 Sept
AC Libertas
1 : 1
SC Faetano
12 Sept
Virtus
2 : 0
AC Libertas
09 Sept
AC Libertas
0 : 2
Folgore
05 Sept
AC Libertas
2 : 1
Juvenes/Dogana
29 Aug
SP Cosmos
1 : 1
AC Libertas
Page 1 of 7

Juvenes/Dogana

(Away)
20 Sept
Tre Penne
2 : 0
Juvenes/Dogana
13 Sept
Juvenes/Dogana
1 : 2
Folgore
08 Sept
Tre Penne
2 : 1
Juvenes/Dogana
05 Sept
AC Libertas
2 : 1
Juvenes/Dogana
28 Aug
Juvenes/Dogana
4 : 0
SC Faetano
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tre Fiori 30 22 7 1 63:13 73
2 Virtus 30 22 6 2 76:20 72
3 Tre Penne 30 21 7 2 71:18 70
4 La Fiorita 30 17 11 2 64:25 57
5 Folgore 30 16 9 5 67:33 57
6 SP Domagnano 30 14 7 9 59:36 49
7 Fiorentino 30 14 4 12 37:42 46
8 SP Cosmos 30 11 9 10 30:23 42
9 Juvenes/Dogana 30 9 10 11 36:38 37
10 AC Libertas 30 9 8 13 32:63 35
11 SS Pennarossa 30 8 8 14 29:53 32
12 San Giovanni 30 7 10 13 24:43 31
13 SC Faetano 30 6 4 20 22:55 22
14 San Marino Academy U22 30 3 7 20 23:60 16
15 Cailungo 30 2 5 23 23:71 11
16 SS Murata 30 1 4 25 20:83 -2
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)