Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AC Libertas vs SS Murata

San Marino San Marino

Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Cozzino E.
Assist: Quarta A.
59' Event
Tahiri J.
77' Event
Giammaria R.
Assist: Michelotti R.

AI Match Summary

The Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 game between AC Libertas and SS Murata finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AC Libertas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
AC Libertas
20%
Draws
30%
SS Murata
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AC Libertas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AC Libertas come out ahead of SS Murata on wins alone.
  • AC Libertas are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
AC Libertas Clean Sheet 68%
SS Murata Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AC Libertas SS Murata
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 3
Draws 7 1
Losses 13 26
Goals Scored 0.97 0.73
Goals Conceded 1.97 2.8
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
AC Libertas vs SS Murata
3:1
Oct 5, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
SS Murata vs AC Libertas
1:1
Feb 8, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
SS Murata vs AC Libertas
1:0
Oct 6, 2024 Campionato Sammarinese
AC Libertas vs SS Murata
1:0
Jan 23, 2024 Campionato Sammarinese
SS Murata vs AC Libertas
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AC Libertas Compare

Top Goalscorer Cozzino E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Giammaria R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

SS Murata Compare

Top Goalscorer Tahiri J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AC Libertas 86 / 100
SS Murata 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AC Libertas SS Murata

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AC Libertas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SS Murata let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

AC Libertas's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

AC Libertas has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

AC Libertas VS SS Murata
0.63 Goals Scored 1
2.75 Goals Conceded 3.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

AC Libertas

(Home)
18 Sept
AC Libertas
1 : 1
SC Faetano
12 Sept
Virtus
2 : 0
AC Libertas
09 Sept
AC Libertas
0 : 2
Folgore
05 Sept
AC Libertas
2 : 1
Juvenes/Dogana
29 Aug
SP Cosmos
1 : 1
AC Libertas
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SS Murata

(Away)
18 Sept
SS Murata
0 : 2
SP Cosmos
12 Sept
SS Murata
0 : 2
San Giovanni
09 Sept
SS Murata
0 : 3
Virtus
06 Sept
SS Pennarossa
1 : 4
SS Murata
28 Aug
Folgore
5 : 0
SS Murata
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tre Fiori 30 22 7 1 63:13 73
2 Virtus 30 22 6 2 76:20 72
3 Tre Penne 30 21 7 2 71:18 70
4 La Fiorita 30 17 11 2 64:25 57
5 Folgore 30 16 9 5 67:33 57
6 SP Domagnano 30 14 7 9 59:36 49
7 Fiorentino 30 14 4 12 37:42 46
8 SP Cosmos 30 11 9 10 30:23 42
9 Juvenes/Dogana 30 9 10 11 36:38 37
10 AC Libertas 30 9 8 13 32:63 35
11 SS Pennarossa 30 8 8 14 29:53 32
12 San Giovanni 30 7 10 13 24:43 31
13 SC Faetano 30 6 4 20 22:55 22
14 San Marino Academy U22 30 3 7 20 23:60 16
15 Cailungo 30 2 5 23 23:71 11
16 SS Murata 30 1 4 25 20:83 -2
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)