Sport Picks
Match Events
37'
37'
Cozzino E.
Assist: Giammaria R.
52'
52'
Fabbri F.
76'
76'
Ferrani M.
Assist: Turchetta G.
AI Match Summary
The Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 game between AC Libertas and Tre Penne finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tre Penne.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
20%
20%
60%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tre Penne
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
60%
/ High Confidence
- Tre Penne carry the better recent record into this one.
- 60% — that's where the model lands on Tre Penne taking it.
- Regular Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Tre Penne have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
AC Libertas Clean Sheet 10%
Tre Penne Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | AC Libertas | Tre Penne |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 22 |
| Draws | 8 | 6 |
| Losses | 13 | 2 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 2.37 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.97 | 0.6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.69 | 2.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 19, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
AC Libertas vs Tre Penne
1:3
Dec 21, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
Tre Penne vs AC Libertas
5:0
Feb 16, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
AC Libertas vs Tre Penne
0:2
Oct 19, 2024 Campionato Sammarinese
Tre Penne vs AC Libertas
1:1
Mar 13, 2024 Campionato Sammarinese
AC Libertas vs Tre Penne
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
AC Libertas Compare
Top Goalscorer Cozzino E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34
Tre Penne Compare
Top Goalscorer Fabbri F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ferrani M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
AC Libertas 10 / 100
Tre Penne 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AC Libertas Tre Penne
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tre Penne Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.40 goals.
AC Libertas scored in 70% of their last 30 games.
Recent resilience: AC Libertas stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Tre Penne's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.
Scoring Trends
AC Libertas VS Tre Penne
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
2.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
AC Libertas
(Home) 18 Sept
AC Libertas
1 : 1 SC Faetano
12 Sept
Virtus
2 : 0 AC Libertas
09 Sept
AC Libertas
0 : 2 Folgore
05 Sept
AC Libertas
2 : 1 Juvenes/Dogana
29 Aug
SP Cosmos
1 : 1 AC Libertas
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
AC Libertas
1 : 1 SC Faetano
09 Sept
AC Libertas
0 : 2 Folgore
05 Sept
AC Libertas
2 : 1 Juvenes/Dogana
26 Apr
AC Libertas
0 : 9 Virtus
19 Apr
AC Libertas
1 : 3 Tre Penne
Page 1 of 3
Tre Penne
(Away) 20 Sept
Tre Penne
2 : 0 Juvenes/Dogana
12 Sept
Cailungo
0 : 2 Tre Penne
08 Sept
Tre Penne
2 : 1 Juvenes/Dogana
04 Sept
Tre Penne
2 : 0 SP Cosmos
29 Aug
San Giovanni
2 : 3 Tre Penne
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Cailungo
0 : 2 Tre Penne
29 Aug
San Giovanni
2 : 3 Tre Penne
22 Aug
Fiorentino
1 : 4 Tre Penne
09 May
La Fiorita
1 : 1 Tre Penne
06 May
SP Cosmos
0 : 0 Tre Penne
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tre Fiori | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 63:13 | 73 |
| 2 | Virtus | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 76:20 | 72 |
| 3 | Tre Penne | 30 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 71:18 | 70 |
| 4 | La Fiorita | 30 | 17 | 11 | 2 | 64:25 | 57 |
| 5 | Folgore | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 67:33 | 57 |
| 6 | SP Domagnano | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 59:36 | 49 |
| 7 | Fiorentino | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 37:42 | 46 |
| 8 | SP Cosmos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 30:23 | 42 |
| 9 | Juvenes/Dogana | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 36:38 | 37 |
| 10 | AC Libertas | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 32:63 | 35 |
| 11 | SS Pennarossa | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 29:53 | 32 |
| 12 | San Giovanni | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 24:43 | 31 |
| 13 | SC Faetano | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 22:55 | 22 |
| 14 | San Marino Academy U22 | 30 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 23:60 | 16 |
| 15 | Cailungo | 30 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 23:71 | 11 |
| 16 | SS Murata | 30 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 20:83 | -2 |
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
