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AC Milan U23 vs Spal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 Stadio Felice Chinetti, Solbiate Arno
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Molina J. I.
34' Event
Sandri M.
46'
Sub
Spini C. In: Haoudi H.
Out: Spini C.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with AC Milan U23 advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
AC Milan U23
20%
Draws
32%
Spal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AC Milan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • AC Milan U23 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • AC Milan U23 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor AC Milan U23, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • AC Milan U23 have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
AC Milan U23 Clean Sheet 25%
Spal Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AC Milan U23 Spal
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 7
Draws 5 10
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.97 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Spal vs AC Milan U23
2:0
May 10, 2025 Serie C - Group A
AC Milan U23 vs Spal
1:0
Feb 1, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Spal vs AC Milan U23
1:2
Sep 26, 2024 Serie C - Group B
AC Milan U23 vs Spal
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AC Milan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Sandri M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Spal Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AC Milan U23 37 / 100
Spal 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AC Milan U23 Spal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AC Milan U23 found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Spal let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.25 goals per match.

AC Milan U23 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AC Milan U23 VS -
1.5 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

AC Milan U23

(Home)
20 Sept
Villa Valle
1 : 2
AC Milan U23
16 Sept
AC Milan U23
2 : 1
Brusaporto
12 Sept
Pro Palazzolo
2 : 0
AC Milan U23
06 Sept
AC Milan U23
4 : 3
Caldiero Terme
02 Sept
Everton U21
1 : 2
AC Milan U23
Page 1 of 6

Spal

(Away)
17 May
Spal
2 : 0
AC Milan U23
10 May
AC Milan U23
1 : 0
Spal
27 Apr
Spal
3 : 0
Gubbio
23 Apr
Vis Pesaro
1 : 1
Spal
12 Apr
Spal
1 : 1
US Pontedera
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Caldiero Terme 0
Triestina 0
Pro Patria 1
Pro Vercelli 1
AC Milan U23 1
Spal 2
Sestri Levante 2
Lucchese 2
ACR Messina 0
Foggia 1