Sport Picks
Match Events
18'
18'
Siebert J.
20'
20'
Gimenez S.
Assist: Bartesaghi D.
22'
22'
Sub
Ndri K. In: Gaspar K.
Out: Ndri K.
AI Match Summary
AC Milan in this Coppa Italia 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lecce
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to AC Milan lately — more wins on the board than Lecce.
- 47% — that's where the model lands on Lecce taking it.
- AC Milan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor AC Milan, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and AC Milan have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
AC Milan Clean Sheet 16%
Lecce Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | AC Milan | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 10 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 9 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.28 | 0.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.17 | 1.3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 18, 2026 Serie A
AC Milan vs Lecce
1:0
Sep 23, 2025 Coppa Italia
AC Milan vs Lecce
3:0
Aug 29, 2025 Serie A
Lecce vs AC Milan
0:2
Mar 8, 2025 Serie A
Lecce vs AC Milan
2:3
Sep 27, 2024 Serie A
AC Milan vs Lecce
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
AC Milan Compare
Top Goalscorer Gimenez S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Nkunku C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Lecce Compare
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
AC Milan 19 / 100
Lecce 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AC Milan Lecce
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick LEC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
AC Milan scored in 72% of their last 29 games.
Defensive concern: Lecce conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
AC Milan went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
AC Milan VS Lecce
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
AC Milan
(Home) 08 Aug
Chelsea
3 : 0 AC Milan
05 Aug
AC Milan
1 : 1 Inter
25 Jul
Celtic
2 : 2 AC Milan
24 May
AC Milan
1 : 2 Cagliari
17 May
Genoa
1 : 2 AC Milan
Page 1 of 6
05 Aug
AC Milan
1 : 1 Inter
24 May
AC Milan
1 : 2 Cagliari
10 May
AC Milan
2 : 3 Atalanta
26 Apr
AC Milan
0 : 0 Juventus
11 Apr
AC Milan
0 : 3 Udinese
Page 1 of 3
Lecce
(Away) 09 Aug
Lecce
1 : 0 Monopoli
29 Jul
Lecce
5 : 2 Bistrica
25 Jul
Lecce
2 : 2 Istra 1961
22 Jul
Lecce
0 : 1 Politehnica Timisoara
19 Jul
Haladas
0 : 1 Lecce
Page 1 of 6
19 Jul
Haladas
0 : 1 Lecce
17 May
Sassuolo
2 : 3 Lecce
01 May
Pisa
1 : 2 Lecce
25 Apr
Verona
0 : 0 Lecce
12 Apr
Bologna
2 : 0 Lecce
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Bologna -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Parma -
TBD -
Pescara 1
Rimini 0
Spezia -
TBD -
TBD -
Sampdoria -
Lazio -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
AC Milan -
TBD -
TBD -
Bari -
Lecce -
TBD -
TBD -
Juve Stabia -
Atalanta -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Empoli -
TBD -
TBD -
Reggiana -
Genoa -
TBD -
Padova 0
Vicenza 2
Juventus -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Udinese -
TBD -
TBD -
Carrarese -
Cremonese -
TBD -
TBD -
Palermo -
Inter -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Audace Cerignola 1
Avellino 0
Verona -
TBD -
Venezia -
TBD -
TBD -
Mantova -
AS Roma -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Torino -
TBD -
TBD -
Modena -
Pisa -
TBD -
TBD -
Cesena -
Napoli -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Monza -
TBD -
TBD -
Frosinone -
Cagliari -
TBD -
Entella 4
Ternana 0
Fiorentina -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Como -
TBD -
TBD -
Sudtirol -
Sassuolo -
TBD -
TBD -
Catanzaro -
1/32-finals
Bologna -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Parma 2
Pescara 0
Spezia 2
Sampdoria 1
Lazio -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
AC Milan 2
Bari 0
Lecce 2
Juve Stabia 0
Atalanta -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Empoli 2
Reggiana 1
Genoa 3
Vicenza 0
Juventus -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Udinese 2
Carrarese 0
Cremonese 0
Palermo 1
Inter -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Audace Cerignola 1
Verona 2
Venezia 4
Mantova 0
AS Roma -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Torino 1
Modena 0
Pisa 1
Cesena 0
Napoli -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Monza 0
Frosinone 1
Cagliari 2
Entella 1
Fiorentina -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Como 3
Sudtirol 1
Sassuolo 1
Catanzaro 0
1/16-finals
Bologna -
TBD -
Parma 3
Spezia 2
Lazio -
TBD -
AC Milan 3
Lecce 0
Atalanta -
TBD -
Empoli 1
Genoa 3
Juventus -
TBD -
Udinese 2
Palermo 1
Inter -
TBD -
Verona 0
Venezia 1
AS Roma -
TBD -
Torino 1
Pisa 0
Napoli -
TBD -
Frosinone 1
Cagliari 4
Fiorentina -
TBD -
Como 3
Sassuolo 0
1/8-finals
Bologna 2
Parma 1
Lazio 1
AC Milan 0
Atalanta 4
Genoa 0
Juventus 2
Udinese 0
Inter 5
Venezia 1
AS Roma 2
Torino 3
Napoli 2
Cagliari 1
Fiorentina 1
Como 3
Quarter-finals
Bologna 1
Lazio 2
Atalanta 3
Juventus 0
Inter 2
Torino 1
Napoli 1
Como 2
Semi-finals
Lazio 4
Atalanta 3
Inter 3
Como 2
Final
Lazio 0
Inter 2
