Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Academia vs Cuiaba

Brazil Brazil

Matogrossense 2025 Municipal Stadium Engineer Luthero Lopes, Rondonópolis
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Gabriel Knesowitsch
41'
Wallisson
46'
Sub
Calebe Costa In: Matheusinho
Out: Calebe Costa

AI Match Summary

Cuiaba in this Matogrossense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cuiaba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Academia
20%
Draws
80%
Cuiaba
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cuiaba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cuiaba lately — more wins on the board than Academia.
  • Win probability leans Cuiaba's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Cuiaba here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 19%
Over 2.5 Goals 13%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Academia Clean Sheet 24%
Cuiaba Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Academia Cuiaba
Matches Played 30 39
Wins 7 14
Draws 3 12
Losses 20 13
Goals Scored 0.9 0.95
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 2, 2025 Matogrossense
Academia vs Cuiaba
0:1
Sep 14, 2024 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Academia vs Cuiaba
1:0
Feb 18, 2024 Matogrossense
Academia vs Cuiaba
0:2
Jan 29, 2023 Matogrossense
Academia vs Cuiaba
0:3
Feb 9, 2022 Matogrossense
Cuiaba vs Academia
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Academia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Cuiaba Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheusinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Academia 10 / 100
Cuiaba 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Academia Cuiaba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cuiaba Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Academia scored in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Cuiaba let in goals in 59% of their last 39 matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Cuiaba
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 0.5
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Academia

(Home)
22 Feb
Academia
0 : 1
Luverdense
15 Feb
Sport Sinop
2 : 0
Academia
08 Feb
Mixto
3 : 1
Academia
02 Feb
Academia
0 : 1
Cuiaba
29 Jan
Academia
0 : 1
Primavera AC
Page 1 of 6

Cuiaba

(Away)
29 Aug
Botafogo SP
1 : 2
Cuiaba
22 Aug
Cuiaba
1 : 1
Goias
19 Aug
Cuiaba
1 : 0
Operario-PR
15 Aug
Ceara
1 : 3
Cuiaba
09 Aug
Cuiaba
1 : 1
Fortaleza
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mixto 8 5 3 0 17:5 18
2 Cuiaba 8 4 4 0 18:5 16
3 Operario VG 8 4 4 0 11:4 16
4 Primavera AC 8 3 4 1 12:6 13
5 Nova Mutum EC 8 3 1 4 7:18 10
6 Uniao Rondonopolis 8 2 3 3 8:9 9
7 Luverdense 8 2 2 4 7:14 8
8 Sport Sinop 8 1 2 5 4:14 5
9 Academia 8 0 1 7 2:11 1
10 Caceres 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Matogrossense 2 (Main)