Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Academia vs Luverdense

Brazil Brazil

Matogrossense 2025 Municipal Stadium Engineer Luthero Lopes, Rondonópolis
Our Tip

Match Events

40'
Guilherme Souza
43'
Gustavo Sarjani
46'
Sub
Gustavo Sarjani In: Leonardo Almeida
Out: Gustavo Sarjani

AI Match Summary

Luverdense in this Matogrossense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Luverdense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Academia
30%
Draws
70%
Luverdense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Luverdense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Academia haven't matched Luverdense's recent run of results.
  • Luverdense are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Matogrossense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Luverdense here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 19%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Academia Clean Sheet 23%
Luverdense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Academia Luverdense
Matches Played 30 35
Wins 7 15
Draws 3 11
Losses 20 9
Goals Scored 0.9 0.94
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.91
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2025 Matogrossense
Academia vs Luverdense
0:1
Feb 15, 2024 Matogrossense
Luverdense vs Academia
3:2
Mar 4, 2023 Matogrossense
Luverdense vs Academia
2:1
Feb 12, 2022 Matogrossense
Academia vs Luverdense
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Academia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Luverdense Compare

Top Goalscorer Gean Junior
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Academia 21 / 100
Luverdense 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Academia Luverdense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Luverdense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Academia scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Luverdense let in goals in 51% of their last 35 matches.

Luverdense lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Luverdense
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 0.63
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Academia

(Home)
22 Feb
Academia
0 : 1
Luverdense
15 Feb
Sport Sinop
2 : 0
Academia
08 Feb
Mixto
3 : 1
Academia
02 Feb
Academia
0 : 1
Cuiaba
29 Jan
Academia
0 : 1
Primavera AC
Page 1 of 6

Luverdense

(Away)
26 Jul
ABC
4 : 1
Luverdense
18 Jul
Luverdense
0 : 0
ABC
12 Jul
Guapore
0 : 0
Luverdense
04 Jul
Luverdense
1 : 0
Guapore
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1
Ceilandia
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mixto 8 5 3 0 17:5 18
2 Cuiaba 8 4 4 0 18:5 16
3 Operario VG 8 4 4 0 11:4 16
4 Primavera AC 8 3 4 1 12:6 13
5 Nova Mutum EC 8 3 1 4 7:18 10
6 Uniao Rondonopolis 8 2 3 3 8:9 9
7 Luverdense 8 2 2 4 7:14 8
8 Sport Sinop 8 1 2 5 4:14 5
9 Academia 8 0 1 7 2:11 1
10 Caceres 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Matogrossense 2 (Main)