Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Acerrana vs Manfredonia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Hernaiz Daschner L.
80' Event
Longo M.
82' Event
Hernaiz Daschner L.

AI Match Summary

Manfredonia in this Serie D - Group H matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Manfredonia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Acerrana
6%
Draws
90%
Manfredonia
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Manfredonia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Manfredonia lately — more wins on the board than Acerrana.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Manfredonia taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Manfredonia have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Acerrana Clean Sheet 10%
Manfredonia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Acerrana Manfredonia
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 3 10
Draws 3 9
Losses 24 10
Goals Scored 1.25 1.13
Goals Conceded 2.63 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Acerrana vs Manfredonia
1:2
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Acerrana
1:0
Apr 13, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Acerrana
2:1
Dec 1, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Acerrana vs Manfredonia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Acerrana Compare

Top Goalscorer Longo M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Manfredonia Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernaiz Daschner L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Acerrana 10 / 100
Manfredonia 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Acerrana Manfredonia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Acerrana's goal record stands at 40% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Manfredonia conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

Away concern: Manfredonia has suffered 1 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Acerrana VS Manfredonia
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Acerrana

(Home)
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2
Manfredonia
26 Apr
Barletta
3 : 0
Acerrana
19 Apr
Acerrana
1 : 3
Pompei
12 Apr
Francavilla
4 : 1
Acerrana
02 Apr
Acerrana
2 : 5
Sarnese
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Manfredonia

(Away)
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2
Manfredonia
26 Apr
Manfredonia
0 : 0
Fidelis Andria
19 Apr
A.C.D. Nardo
2 : 0
Manfredonia
12 Apr
Manfredonia
1 : 0
SS Nola 1925
02 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 1
Manfredonia
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barletta342010454:2070
2Martina Calcio34188847:3062
3Citta di Fasano34188851:3562
4Paganese341771036:3258
5A.C.D. Nardo341413740:2755
6Gravina341671150:4055
7Afragolese3413101145:4649
8Fidelis Andria341391235:2848
9Virtus Francavilla3412121045:4048
10Real Normanna3410131127:2643
11Francavilla3411101339:3843
12Manfredonia3411101334:3943
13Sarnese349141151:4941
14SS Nola 1925341181542:5041
15Heraclea341081631:3938
16Pompei34971826:3834
17Ferrandina34791821:4330
18Acerrana34352620:7414
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)