Sport Picks

Stadium Background

ACR Messina vs AS Acireale

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 Stadio San Filippo, Messina
ACR Messina Logo

ACR Messina

2 - 1
FT
AS Acireale Logo

AS Acireale

Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Tedesco G.
12' Event
Di Mauro K.
59' Event
Bonofiglio L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 game between ACR Messina and AS Acireale finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward ACR Messina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
ACR Messina
35%
Draws
12%
AS Acireale
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: ACR Messina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • ACR Messina carry the better recent record into this one.
  • ACR Messina are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • ACR Messina have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
ACR Messina Clean Sheet 68%
AS Acireale Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ACR Messina AS Acireale
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 7
Draws 12 11
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 0.77 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group I
ACR Messina vs AS Acireale
2:1
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group I
AS Acireale vs ACR Messina
1:2
Mar 7, 2021 Serie D - Group I
AS Acireale vs ACR Messina
0:1
Oct 18, 2020 Serie D - Group I
ACR Messina vs AS Acireale
2:1
Jan 12, 2020 Serie D - Group I
AS Acireale vs ACR Messina
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

ACR Messina Compare

Top Goalscorer Tedesco G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bonofiglio L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

AS Acireale Compare

Top Goalscorer Di Mauro K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ACR Messina 59 / 100
AS Acireale 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ACR Messina AS Acireale

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ACR Messina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AS Acireale's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

ACR Messina went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

ACR Messina found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

ACR Messina VS AS Acireale
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

ACR Messina

(Home)
10 May
USD Ragusa
0 : 0
ACR Messina
03 May
ACR Messina
1 : 0
Milazzo
26 Apr
Igea Virtus
1 : 1
ACR Messina
19 Apr
Lamezia
1 : 1
ACR Messina
12 Apr
ACR Messina
1 : 0
USD Ragusa
Page 1 of 6

AS Acireale

(Away)
10 May
Vibonese
1 : 0
AS Acireale
03 May
Vibonese
1 : 0
AS Acireale
26 Apr
AS Acireale
0 : 0
USD Ragusa
19 Apr
Gelbison
2 : 1
AS Acireale
12 Apr
AS Acireale
0 : 0
Nissa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)