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Stadium Background

ACR Messina vs Gelbison

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 Stadio San Filippo, Messina
ACR Messina Logo

ACR Messina

1 - 2
FT
Gelbison Logo

Gelbison

Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Roseti C.
49' Event
Liurni L.
60' Event
De Martino G.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 game between ACR Messina and Gelbison finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gelbison.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
ACR Messina
35%
Draws
20%
Gelbison
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: ACR Messina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Gelbison come out ahead of ACR Messina on wins alone.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on ACR Messina taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
ACR Messina Clean Sheet 68%
Gelbison Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ACR Messina Gelbison
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 16
Draws 12 6
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 0.77 1.27
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Serie D - Group I
ACR Messina vs Gelbison
1:2
Nov 16, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs ACR Messina
0:1
May 13, 2023 Serie C - Group A
ACR Messina vs Gelbison
1:0
May 6, 2023 Serie C - Group A
Gelbison vs ACR Messina
1:0
Feb 12, 2023 Serie C - Group C
Gelbison vs ACR Messina
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

ACR Messina Compare

Top Goalscorer Roseti C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Gelbison Compare

Top Goalscorer Liurni L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader De Martino G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ACR Messina 95 / 100
Gelbison 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ACR Messina Gelbison

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ACR Messina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

ACR Messina went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: ACR Messina scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Gelbison conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

ACR Messina VS Gelbison
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

ACR Messina

(Home)
10 May
USD Ragusa
0 : 0
ACR Messina
03 May
ACR Messina
1 : 0
Milazzo
26 Apr
Igea Virtus
1 : 1
ACR Messina
19 Apr
Lamezia
1 : 1
ACR Messina
12 Apr
ACR Messina
1 : 0
USD Ragusa
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Gelbison

(Away)
16 Sept
Gelbison
2 : 1
Budoni Calcio
13 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
2 : 1
Gelbison
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
11 Aug
Nocerina
3 : 0
Gelbison
10 May
Nissa
4 : 0
Gelbison
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)