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AD Ceuta vs Malaga - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Salinas J.
Own Goal
38'
Mas D.
40' Event
Abaida H.

AI Match Summary

AD Ceuta in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored AD Ceuta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
AD Ceuta
35%
Draws
19%
Malaga
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: AD Ceuta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Malaga lately — more wins on the board than AD Ceuta.
  • Model gives AD Ceuta a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
AD Ceuta Clean Sheet 16%
Malaga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Ceuta Malaga
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 7 12
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.14 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2026 Club Friendly
AD Ceuta vs Malaga
2:1
May 16, 2026 LaLiga2
AD Ceuta vs Malaga
1:4
Jan 11, 2026 LaLiga2
Malaga vs AD Ceuta
2:1
Apr 7, 2024 Primera RFEF - Group 2
Malaga vs AD Ceuta
1:1
Jan 14, 2024 Primera RFEF - Group 2
AD Ceuta vs Malaga
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Ceuta Compare

Top Goalscorer Zalazar K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Malaga Compare

Top Goalscorer Abaida H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Ceuta 84 / 100
Malaga 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Ceuta Malaga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Ceuta Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

AD Ceuta found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Malaga conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: AD Ceuta remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

AD Ceuta VS Malaga
1 Goals Scored 0.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Ceuta

(Home)
04 Oct
Castellon
1 : 1
AD Ceuta
26 Sept
AD Ceuta
3 : 1
Real Sociedad B
20 Sept
AD Ceuta
1 : 1
Valladolid
11 Sept
Burgos CF
3 : 1
AD Ceuta
05 Sept
AD Ceuta
0 : 2
Celta Vigo B
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Malaga

(Away)
20 Sept
Getafe
1 : 0
Malaga
17 Sept
Malaga
1 : 3
Villarreal
13 Sept
Celta Vigo
1 : 1
Malaga
06 Sept
Malaga
0 : 0
Levante
30 Aug
Real Madrid
4 : 0
Malaga
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