Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AD Ceuta vs Malaga

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Salinas J.
Own Goal
38'
Mas D.
40' Event
Abaida H.

AI Match Summary

AD Ceuta in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored AD Ceuta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
AD Ceuta
20%
Draws
38%
Malaga
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AD Ceuta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Malaga lately — more wins on the board than AD Ceuta.
  • Model gives AD Ceuta a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
AD Ceuta Clean Sheet 16%
Malaga Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Ceuta Malaga
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 13 17
Draws 7 9
Losses 13 5
Goals Scored 1.3 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 LaLiga2
AD Ceuta vs Malaga
1:4
Jan 11, 2026 LaLiga2
Malaga vs AD Ceuta
2:1
Apr 7, 2024 Primera RFEF - Group 2
Malaga vs AD Ceuta
1:1
Jan 14, 2024 Primera RFEF - Group 2
AD Ceuta vs Malaga
3:2
Oct 8, 2003 Copa del Rey
AD Ceuta vs Malaga
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Ceuta Compare

Top Goalscorer Zalazar K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Malaga Compare

Top Goalscorer Abaida H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Ceuta 41 / 100
Malaga 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Ceuta Malaga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

AD Ceuta found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (33 games).

Defensive concern: Malaga conceded in 68% of 31 recent games.

Solid form: AD Ceuta remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

AD Ceuta VS Malaga
1.38 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Ceuta

(Home)
07 Aug
AD Ceuta
2 : 1
Malaga
29 Jul
Cadiz
1 : 3
AD Ceuta
26 Jul
Sevilla
2 : 1
AD Ceuta
22 Jul
Torremolinos
1 : 0
AD Ceuta
30 May
AD Ceuta
1 : 0
Albacete
Page 1 of 7

Malaga

(Away)
07 Aug
AD Ceuta
2 : 1
Malaga
06 Aug
Malaga
4 : 2
Al Arabi (Qatar)
30 Jul
Malaga
2 : 2
Al Ittihad
25 Jul
Malaga
3 : 3
Leicester
20 Jun
Almeria
1 : 2
Malaga
Page 1 of 7