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Ferrymead Bays vs Miramar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

New Zealand New Zealand

National League
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
03:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ferrymead Bays host Miramar in the National League. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Recent numbers: Ferrymead Bays at 1.5 goals for, 2 against; Miramar at 2.03 for, 1.9 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.35 vs 1.99, favoring Miramar. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Ferrymead Bays
22%
Draws
45%
Miramar
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Miramar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Ferrymead Bays haven't matched Miramar's recent run of results.
  • 45% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular National League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.4%
Ferrymead Bays Clean Sheet 10%
Miramar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ferrymead Bays Miramar
Matches Played 4 29
Wins 1 12
Draws 1 3
Losses 2 14
Goals Scored 1.5 2.03
Goals Conceded 2 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferrymead Bays 34 / 100
Miramar 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ferrymead Bays Miramar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Miramar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Miramar let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Ferrymead Bays scored in 75% of their last 4 games.

Ferrymead Bays has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Miramar's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Ferrymead Bays VS Miramar
1.2 Goals Scored 2.38
1.6 Goals Conceded 1.5
60% Over 1.5 100%
60% Over 2.5 100%
20% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ferrymead Bays

(Home)
03 Oct
Wellington Olympic
1 : 2
Ferrymead Bays
26 Sept
Ferrymead Bays
0 : 0
Eastern Suburbs
24 Feb
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Ferrymead Bays
05 Jul
Ferrymead Bays
3 : 5
Coastal Spirit

Miramar

(Away)
03 Oct
Miramar
2 : 1
Auckland FC 2
26 Sept
Napier City
1 : 1
Miramar
26 Jul
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Miramar
04 Jul
Island Bay
1 : 3
Miramar
06 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 1
Miramar
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cashmere Technical 2 2 0 0 14:0 6
2 Auckland United 2 1 1 0 8:2 4
3 Miramar 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
4 Ferrymead Bays 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
5 Auckland City 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
6 Wellington Olympic 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
7 Eastern Suburbs 2 0 1 1 2:4 1
8 Napier City 2 0 1 1 2:8 1
9 Wellington Phoenix 2 2 0 1 1 1:11 1
10 Auckland FC 2 2 0 0 2 3:5 0
11 Birkenhead 1 0 0 1 0:4 0
Promotion - National League (Grand Final)