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AD Fafe vs Canelas 2010

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Castro D.
Assist: Silva D.
42' Event
Kodama R.
Assist: Silva D.
48'
Miguel J.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2023/2024 game between AD Fafe and Canelas 2010 finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AD Fafe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
AD Fafe
30%
Draws
12%
Canelas 2010
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AD Fafe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AD Fafe come out ahead of Canelas 2010 on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans AD Fafe's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
AD Fafe Clean Sheet 68%
Canelas 2010 Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Fafe Canelas 2010
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 17 9
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.44 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2024 Liga 3
Canelas 2010 vs AD Fafe
0:2
Feb 17, 2024 Liga 3
AD Fafe vs Canelas 2010
2:1
Jan 28, 2024 Liga 3
AD Fafe vs Canelas 2010
0:0
Oct 29, 2023 Liga 3
Canelas 2010 vs AD Fafe
3:1
Jan 21, 2023 Liga 3
AD Fafe vs Canelas 2010
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Fafe Compare

Top Goalscorer Castro D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kodama R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Canelas 2010 Compare

Top Goalscorer Lourenco O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Fafe 95 / 100
Canelas 2010 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Fafe Canelas 2010

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Fafe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Fafe's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Canelas 2010 let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: AD Fafe remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

AD Fafe VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Fafe

(Home)
20 Sept
AD Fafe
4 : 0
Lajense
13 Sept
Paredes
2 : 1
AD Fafe
06 Sept
Leca
0 : 3
AD Fafe
29 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
0 : 1
AD Fafe
21 Aug
AD Fafe
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
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Canelas 2010

(Away)
04 May
Canelas 2010
0 : 2
AD Fafe
27 Apr
Anadia
1 : 0
Canelas 2010
14 Apr
Trofense
4 : 1
Canelas 2010
07 Apr
Canelas 2010
1 : 1
Sanjoanense
30 Mar
SC Vianense
0 : 0
Canelas 2010
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