Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AD Fafe vs Paredes

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe, Fafe
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Erik
30'
Ribeiro Oliveira J.
57'
Carvalho D.

AI Match Summary

AD Fafe in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored AD Fafe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
AD Fafe
15%
Draws
46%
Paredes
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Paredes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Paredes average 1.67 goals a game right now, well clear of AD Fafe's 1.47.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
AD Fafe Clean Sheet 68%
Paredes Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Fafe Paredes
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 16 16
Draws 8 7
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.47 1.67
Goals Conceded 0.94 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Liga 3
Paredes vs AD Fafe
2:1
Mar 22, 2026 Liga 3
AD Fafe vs Paredes
1:0
Mar 8, 2026 Liga 3
Paredes vs AD Fafe
0:0
Nov 29, 2025 Liga 3
AD Fafe vs Paredes
2:1
Aug 17, 2025 Liga 3
Paredes vs AD Fafe
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Fafe 41 / 100
Paredes 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Fafe Paredes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Fafe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Fafe's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Defensive concern: Paredes conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: AD Fafe remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

AD Fafe VS Paredes
1.5 Goals Scored 2.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Fafe

(Home)
20 Sept
AD Fafe
4 : 0
Lajense
13 Sept
Paredes
2 : 1
AD Fafe
06 Sept
Leca
0 : 3
AD Fafe
29 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
0 : 1
AD Fafe
21 Aug
AD Fafe
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
Page 1 of 7

Paredes

(Away)
20 Sept
Paredes
5 : 1
Maria de Fonte
13 Sept
Paredes
2 : 1
AD Fafe
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1
Paredes
30 Aug
Ermesinde
1 : 3
Paredes
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
Page 1 of 6