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AD Llerenense vs Villanovense

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Carrasco A.
60' Event
Munoz O.

AI Match Summary

Villanovense in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Villanovense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
AD Llerenense
6%
Draws
90%
Villanovense
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Villanovense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Villanovense have won more games recently than AD Llerenense.
  • Win probability leans Villanovense's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
AD Llerenense Clean Sheet 10%
Villanovense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Llerenense Villanovense
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 8 7
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 0.63 2
Goals Conceded 2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Villanovense
0:2
Dec 7, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Villanovense vs AD Llerenense
1:0
Feb 11, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Villanovense vs AD Llerenense
1:0
Oct 1, 2023 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
AD Llerenense vs Villanovense
0:0
May 10, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Villanovense
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Llerenense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Villanovense Compare

Top Goalscorer Carrasco A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Munoz O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Llerenense 10 / 100
Villanovense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Llerenense Villanovense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Llerenense's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Villanovense conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: AD Llerenense remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 0.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

AD Llerenense VS Villanovense
0.63 Goals Scored 2
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Llerenense

(Home)
09 May
AD Llerenense
3 : 1
CD Calamonte
01 May
Puebla de la Calzada
4 : 1
AD Llerenense
26 Apr
AD Llerenense
1 : 1
Jaraiz
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2
AD Llerenense
12 Apr
AD Llerenense
0 : 2
Villanovense
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Villanovense

(Away)
10 May
Villanovense
0 : 1
Jaraiz
03 May
Montehermoso
0 : 3
Villanovense
26 Apr
Villanovense
2 : 0
Jerez CF
19 Apr
Villanovense
3 : 2
Cabeza del Buey
12 Apr
AD Llerenense
0 : 2
Villanovense
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Don Benito34218570:2271
2CD Badajoz34235664:2771
3Moralo341711654:3262
4CD Azuaga34188853:3162
5Jaraiz341611753:3359
6Cabeza del Buey341512745:2957
7SP Villafranca341671145:4055
8Villanovense341581145:3653
9Montijo341371443:4246
10Jerez CF34817956:5141
11AD Llerenense341181535:4441
12Puebla de la Calzada349111435:4838
13Santa Amalia34971830:5234
14Gevora34891732:5333
15Pueblonuevo34961929:5533
16CD Diocesano346121633:6330
17Montehermoso34582124:6623
18CD Calamonte343131825:4722
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)