Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AD Marco 09 vs Sao Joao de Ver

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Municipal de Marco de Canaveses
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Washington
25'
Morais B.
32' Event
Kibe
Assist: Guimaraes B.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 game between AD Marco 09 and Sao Joao de Ver finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AD Marco 09.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
AD Marco 09
20%
Draws
38%
Sao Joao de Ver
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AD Marco 09

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • AD Marco 09 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • AD Marco 09 are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Liga 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
AD Marco 09 Clean Sheet 68%
Sao Joao de Ver Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Marco 09 Sao Joao de Ver
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 8
Draws 10 11
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 0.63 1
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs AD Marco 09
0:0
Mar 1, 2026 Liga 3
AD Marco 09 vs Sao Joao de Ver
2:1
Dec 21, 2025 Liga 3
AD Marco 09 vs Sao Joao de Ver
2:1
Sep 24, 2025 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs AD Marco 09
0:0
Feb 11, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
AD Marco 09 vs Sao Joao de Ver
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Marco 09 Compare

Top Goalscorer Kibe
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mauro Ribeiro
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Sao Joao de Ver Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Marco 09 51 / 100
Sao Joao de Ver 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Marco 09 Sao Joao de Ver

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Marco 09 went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

AD Marco 09 found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Sao Joao de Ver's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.20 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

AD Marco 09 VS Sao Joao de Ver
0.63 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vitoria Guimaraes B1885520:1629
2Amarante FC1885519:1729
3Trofense1877423:1528
4Varzim1877426:1728
5Paredes1869322:1227
6Braga B1867516:1725
7AD Fafe1866623:2124
8AD Marco 091847715:2219
9Sao Joao de Ver1828811:2614
10Sanjoanense1827920:3213
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1CF Os Belenenses18122427:1638
2Mafra1897228:1934
3Academica1877429:1828
4Santarem1867515:1425
5Atletico CP1864816:1722
6Lusitano GC1864819:1922
7Amora1856719:2221
8Caldas SC1863917:2321
91º Dezembro1838713:2117
10Covilha1828810:2414