Sport Picks
Match Events
47'
47'
Kone L.
Assist: El Ftouhi S.
66'
66'
Sub
El Ftouhi S. In: Hallsson S.
Out: El Ftouhi S.
68'
68'
Sub
Artola J. In: Castano V.
Out: Artola J.
AI Match Summary
The Primera RFEF - Group 1 game between AD Merida and Cacereno finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AD Merida.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
26%
15%
59%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cacereno
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Cacereno come out ahead of AD Merida on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
AD Merida Clean Sheet 14%
Cacereno Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | AD Merida | Cacereno |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 32 |
| Wins | 10 | 13 |
| Draws | 7 | 11 |
| Losses | 14 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.06 | 1.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.58 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 4, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
AD Merida vs Cacereno
2:0
Feb 22, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
AD Merida vs Cacereno
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Cacereno vs AD Merida
2:1
Aug 12, 2023 Club Friendly
Cacereno vs AD Merida
0:0
Apr 24, 2022 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Cacereno vs AD Merida
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
AD Merida Compare
Top Goalscorer Kone L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Hallsson S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
Cacereno Compare
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
AD Merida 31 / 100
Cacereno 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AD Merida Cacereno
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Cacereno Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: AD Merida scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Cacereno let in goals in 59% of their last 32 matches.
AD Merida has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
AD Merida VS Cacereno
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
AD Merida
(Home) 04 Oct
AD Merida
2 : 0 Cacereno
27 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 5 UD Logrones
19 Sept
Ponferradina
1 : 0 AD Merida
12 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 4 Mirandes
06 Sept
Leonesa
1 : 0 AD Merida
Page 1 of 7
04 Oct
AD Merida
2 : 0 Cacereno
27 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 5 UD Logrones
12 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 4 Mirandes
29 Aug
AD Merida
1 : 0 Deportivo Fabril
22 Aug
AD Merida
0 : 0 Recreativo Huelva
Page 1 of 4
Cacereno
(Away) 04 Oct
AD Merida
2 : 0 Cacereno
27 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 0 Cacereno
20 Sept
Cacereno
3 : 0 Arenas Getxo
16 Sept
Recreativo Huelva
2 : 1 Cacereno
13 Sept
Cacereno
1 : 0 Leonesa
Page 1 of 7
04 Oct
AD Merida
2 : 0 Cacereno
27 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 0 Cacereno
16 Sept
Recreativo Huelva
2 : 1 Cacereno
06 Sept
Deportivo Fabril
1 : 1 Cacereno
21 Aug
Unionistas de Salamanca
1 : 0 Cacereno
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Logrones | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15:7 | 16 |
| 2 | Lugo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9:3 | 16 |
| 3 | Ath Bilbao B | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:8 | 11 |
| 4 | Cacereno | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6:3 | 11 |
| 5 | Ponferradina | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5:3 | 11 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:7 | 10 |
| 7 | Zamora | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:6 | 10 |
| 8 | Racing Club Ferrol | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7:5 | 10 |
| 9 | Real Union | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | 8 |
| 10 | Deportivo Fabril | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8:7 | 8 |
| 11 | Pontevedra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 8 |
| 12 | Leonesa | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | 8 |
| 13 | CD Extremadura | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 14 | AD Merida | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9:11 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9:12 | 6 |
| 16 | Barakaldo | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 17 | Real Aviles | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | 5 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2:10 | 2 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4:14 | 2 |
Promotion - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
