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AD Pemba vs Ferroviario Lichinga

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Mocambola game between AD Pemba and Ferroviario Lichinga finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ferroviario Lichinga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
AD Pemba
15%
Draws
45%
Ferroviario Lichinga
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ferroviario Lichinga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Ferroviario Lichinga carry the better recent record into this one.
  • AD Pemba are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Mocambola form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.4%
AD Pemba Clean Sheet 20%
Ferroviario Lichinga Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Pemba Ferroviario Lichinga
Matches Played 17 26
Wins 5 11
Draws 2 6
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 0.53 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.12 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Mocambola
AD Pemba vs Ferroviario Lichinga
0:1
May 20, 2026 Mocambola
Ferroviario Lichinga vs AD Pemba
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Pemba 42 / 100
Ferroviario Lichinga 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Pemba Ferroviario Lichinga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Solid form: AD Pemba remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

AD Pemba's goal record stands at 41% scoring rate across 17 recent games.

Ferroviario Lichinga has conceded goals in 58% of their last 26 outings.

Scoring Trends

AD Pemba VS Ferroviario Lichinga
0.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Pemba

(Home)
16 Sept
ENH Vilankulo
1 : 0
AD Pemba
30 Aug
AD Pemba
0 : 1
Ferroviario Lichinga
26 Aug
AD Pemba
2 : 0
Ferroviario Nampula
21 Aug
AD Pemba
1 : 0
Ferroviario Nacala
18 Aug
AD Pemba
1 : 0
Maxaquene
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Ferroviario Lichinga

(Away)
16 Sept
Ferroviario Lichinga
0 : 0
Ferroviario Nacala
13 Sept
Ferroviario Lichinga
3 : 0
Ferroviario Nampula
02 Sept
Baia de Pemba
2 : 1
Ferroviario Lichinga
30 Aug
AD Pemba
0 : 1
Ferroviario Lichinga
17 Aug
Sofala
0 : 1
Ferroviario Lichinga
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Associacao Black Bulls 19 13 5 1 28:9 44
2 Costa do Sol 18 10 4 4 24:11 34
3 Ferroviario Beira 18 9 7 2 23:12 34
4 UD Songo 18 6 10 2 20:13 28
5 Ferroviario Lichinga 17 8 4 5 16:13 28
6 Ferroviario Nampula 17 8 4 5 19:21 28
7 Ferroviario Maputo 18 6 5 7 13:11 23
8 ENH Vilankulo 17 4 8 5 19:16 20
9 Ferroviario Nacala 17 5 5 7 8:12 20
10 Baia de Pemba 17 4 7 6 9:12 19
11 Sofala 19 4 6 9 8:19 18
12 AD Pemba 17 5 2 10 9:19 17
13 Maxaquene 18 1 7 10 8:23 10
14 Chingale de Tete 18 1 6 11 4:17 9
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)