Sport Picks
Match Events
23'
23'
Molina J.
29'
29'
Bauman J.
Assist: Soto J.
34'
34'
del Castillo J.
AI Match Summary
The Liga 1 game between AD Tarma and Alianza Atl. finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
17%
15%
68%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alianza Atl.
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
68%
/ High Confidence
- Alianza Atl. carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Alianza Atl. a 68% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
AD Tarma Clean Sheet 10%
Alianza Atl. Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | AD Tarma | Alianza Atl. |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 34 |
| Wins | 8 | 17 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 15 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.16 | 1.53 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.45 | 1.35 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 2.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 15, 2026 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Alianza Atl.
1:1
Feb 27, 2026 Liga 1
Alianza Atl. vs AD Tarma
0:0
Sep 26, 2025 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Alianza Atl.
1:0
May 4, 2025 Liga 1
Alianza Atl. vs AD Tarma
2:0
Sep 28, 2024 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Alianza Atl.
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
AD Tarma Compare
Top Goalscorer Bauman J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Alianza Atl. Compare
Top Goalscorer Molina J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
AD Tarma 10 / 100
Alianza Atl. 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AD Tarma Alianza Atl.
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Alianza Atl. Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
AD Tarma found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (31 games).
Alianza Atl. let in goals in 79% of their last 34 matches.
H2H data points to 1.20 goals as a typical output.
AD Tarma went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
AD Tarma VS Alianza Atl.
0.75 Goals Scored 2.13
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
AD Tarma
(Home) 27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1 Sporting Cristal
23 Sept
AD Tarma
2 : 1 Cienciano
19 Sept
A. Lima
2 : 0 AD Tarma
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0 AD Tarma
30 Aug
AD Tarma
1 : 3 Sport Huancayo
Page 1 of 7
27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1 Sporting Cristal
23 Sept
AD Tarma
2 : 1 Cienciano
30 Aug
AD Tarma
1 : 3 Sport Huancayo
27 Aug
AD Tarma
2 : 0 Moquegua
15 Aug
AD Tarma
1 : 1 Alianza Atl.
Page 1 of 4
Alianza Atl.
(Away) 27 Sept
Sport Boys
2 : 5 Alianza Atl.
18 Sept
Alianza Atl.
2 : 1 Comerciantes Unidos
13 Sept
Atletico Grau
3 : 1 Alianza Atl.
04 Sept
Alianza Atl.
3 : 2 Cajamarca
30 Aug
Moquegua
1 : 4 Alianza Atl.
Page 1 of 7
27 Sept
Sport Boys
2 : 5 Alianza Atl.
13 Sept
Atletico Grau
3 : 1 Alianza Atl.
30 Aug
Moquegua
1 : 4 Alianza Atl.
15 Aug
AD Tarma
1 : 1 Alianza Atl.
02 Aug
A. Lima
3 : 1 Alianza Atl.
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 18:6 | 22 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19:16 | 20 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20:10 | 19 |
| 4 | Alianza Atl. | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20:17 | 19 |
| 5 | Sport Huancayo | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | 19 |
| 6 | Juan Pablo II | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20:12 | 18 |
| 7 | FBC Melgar | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16:9 | 18 |
| 8 | Sport Boys | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:7 | 18 |
| 9 | Cusco | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 19:14 | 18 |
| 10 | A. Lima | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 14:10 | 16 |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14:13 | 16 |
| 12 | FC Cajamarca | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18:24 | 10 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17:18 | 9 |
| 14 | Cienciano | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11:17 | 7 |
| 15 | Moquegua | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7:17 | 7 |
| 16 | Los Chankas | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:23 | 7 |
| 17 | AD Tarma | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7:21 | 5 |
| 18 | Cajamarca | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11:24 | 2 |
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)
