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AD Tarma vs Cienciano - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Unión Tarma, Tarma
Our Tip

Match Events

21'
Nunez O.
39'
Arias Fierro S. D.
40'
Rodriguez A.

AI Match Summary

AD Tarma in this Liga 1 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored AD Tarma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
AD Tarma
15%
Draws
59%
Cienciano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cienciano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Cienciano have won more games recently than AD Tarma.
  • Cienciano are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Liga 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
AD Tarma Clean Sheet 14%
Cienciano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Tarma Cienciano
Matches Played 28 33
Wins 8 16
Draws 6 4
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.14 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 23, 2026 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Cienciano
2:1
Jul 10, 2026 Copa de la Liga
Cienciano vs AD Tarma
2:3
Apr 3, 2026 Liga 1
Cienciano vs AD Tarma
3:2
Jul 19, 2025 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Cienciano
1:0
Mar 5, 2025 Copa Sudamericana
AD Tarma vs Cienciano
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Tarma Compare

Top Goalscorer Narvaez J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Cienciano Compare

Top Goalscorer Becerra K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Tarma 10 / 100
Cienciano 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Tarma Cienciano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cienciano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

AD Tarma found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).

Cienciano has conceded goals in 76% of their last 33 outings.

AD Tarma went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AD Tarma VS Cienciano
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Tarma

(Home)
01 Oct
Sporting Cristal
5 : 0
AD Tarma
27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1
Sporting Cristal
23 Sept
AD Tarma
2 : 1
Cienciano
19 Sept
A. Lima
2 : 0
AD Tarma
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0
AD Tarma
Page 1 of 6

Cienciano

(Away)
08 Oct
Moquegua
0 : 2
Cienciano
30 Sept
Cienciano
1 : 1
Los Chankas
23 Sept
AD Tarma
2 : 1
Cienciano
18 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 0
Cienciano
11 Sept
Cienciano
2 : 0
Montevideo City
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportivo Garcilaso 10 7 1 2 18:6 22
2 Universitario de Deportes 10 6 2 2 19:16 20
3 Sporting Cristal 10 6 1 3 20:10 19
4 Alianza Atl. 10 6 1 3 20:17 19
5 Sport Huancayo 10 6 1 3 16:13 19
6 Juan Pablo II 10 5 3 2 20:12 18
7 FBC Melgar 10 5 3 2 16:9 18
8 Sport Boys 10 5 3 2 14:7 18
9 Cusco 10 6 0 4 19:14 18
10 Atletico Grau 11 5 2 4 14:13 17
11 A. Lima 10 4 4 2 14:10 16
12 Cienciano 11 3 2 6 14:18 11
13 FC Cajamarca 10 3 1 6 18:24 10
14 Comerciantes Unidos 10 2 3 5 17:18 9
15 Los Chankas 11 2 3 6 11:24 9
16 Moquegua 11 1 4 6 7:19 7
17 AD Tarma 10 1 2 7 7:21 5
18 Cajamarca 10 0 2 8 11:24 2
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)