Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AD Tarma vs Cusco

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Unión Tarma, Tarma
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Colman I.
Assist: Valenzuela O.
27' Event
Ojeda A.
Assist: Rojas J.
36'
Ojeda A.

AI Match Summary

Cusco in this Liga 1 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cusco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
AD Tarma
15%
Draws
64%
Cusco
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cusco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cusco lately — more wins on the board than AD Tarma.
  • Win probability leans Cusco's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
AD Tarma Clean Sheet 10%
Cusco Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Tarma Cusco
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 7 4
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.17 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Cusco
1:2
Sep 23, 2025 Liga 1
Cusco vs AD Tarma
0:2
Apr 28, 2025 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Cusco
2:1
Sep 17, 2024 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Cusco
1:2
Apr 14, 2024 Liga 1
Cusco vs AD Tarma
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Tarma Compare

Top Goalscorer Ojeda A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Cusco Compare

Top Goalscorer Colman I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tevez J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Tarma 10 / 100
Cusco 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Tarma Cusco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cusco Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Cusco conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

AD Tarma's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

AD Tarma went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AD Tarma VS Cusco
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Tarma

(Home)
27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1
Sporting Cristal
23 Sept
AD Tarma
2 : 1
Cienciano
19 Sept
A. Lima
2 : 0
AD Tarma
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0
AD Tarma
30 Aug
AD Tarma
1 : 3
Sport Huancayo
Page 1 of 6

Cusco

(Away)
19 Sept
FC Cajamarca
1 : 2
Cusco
12 Sept
Cusco
0 : 1
FBC Melgar
05 Sept
Cusco
2 : 0
Moquegua
31 Aug
Cienciano
1 : 2
Cusco
23 Aug
Deportivo Garcilaso
4 : 1
Cusco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A. Lima 17 12 4 1 30:8 40
2 Los Chankas 17 10 4 3 25:21 34
3 Cienciano 17 10 3 4 34:22 33
4 Universitario de Deportes 17 8 5 4 24:15 29
5 FBC Melgar 17 8 4 5 29:20 28
6 Cusco 17 8 3 6 21:24 27
7 Deportivo Garcilaso 17 7 5 5 21:18 26
8 Alianza Atl. 17 5 6 6 20:18 21
9 Comerciantes Unidos 17 5 6 6 18:20 21
10 AD Tarma 17 5 5 7 22:21 20
11 Sport Boys 17 5 5 7 15:19 20
12 Sporting Cristal 17 5 4 8 28:30 19
13 Cajamarca 17 4 6 7 21:26 18
14 Moquegua 17 5 3 9 17:24 18
15 FC Cajamarca 17 4 5 8 23:28 17
16 Atletico Grau 17 4 4 9 12:18 16
17 Sport Huancayo 17 4 4 9 21:31 16
18 Juan Pablo II 17 4 4 9 22:40 16
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)