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AD Tarma vs Sporting Cristal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Peru Peru

Copa de la Liga Estadio Unión Tarma, Tarma
AD Tarma Logo

AD Tarma

0 - 1
FT
Sporting Cristal Logo

Sporting Cristal

Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Gabriel
45'
Benincasa H.
46'
Sub
Avila I. In: Barcos H.
Out: Avila I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 5-0. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
AD Tarma
15%
Draws
67%
Sporting Cristal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sporting Cristal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / High Confidence
  • Sporting Cristal have won more games recently than AD Tarma.
  • 67% — that's where the model lands on Sporting Cristal taking it.
  • Sporting Cristal arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Sporting Cristal, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Sporting Cristal have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
AD Tarma Clean Sheet 10%
Sporting Cristal Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Tarma Sporting Cristal
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 8 17
Draws 8 5
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.81
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2026 Copa de la Liga
Sporting Cristal vs AD Tarma
5:0
Sep 27, 2026 Copa de la Liga
AD Tarma vs Sporting Cristal
0:1
May 24, 2026 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs AD Tarma
2:1
Oct 4, 2025 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Sporting Cristal
3:2
May 17, 2025 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs AD Tarma
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Tarma Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Sporting Cristal Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Tarma 10 / 100
Sporting Cristal 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Tarma Sporting Cristal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sporting Cristal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

AD Tarma found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Sporting Cristal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 31 matches.

Recent resilience: AD Tarma stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AD Tarma VS Sporting Cristal
0.88 Goals Scored 2.5
2 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Tarma

(Home)
10 Oct
AD Tarma
0 : 0
FC Cajamarca
01 Oct
Sporting Cristal
5 : 0
AD Tarma
27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1
Sporting Cristal
23 Sept
AD Tarma
2 : 1
Cienciano
19 Sept
A. Lima
2 : 0
AD Tarma
Page 1 of 6

Sporting Cristal

(Away)
11 Oct
Cajamarca
0 : 1
Sporting Cristal
01 Oct
Sporting Cristal
5 : 0
AD Tarma
27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1
Sporting Cristal
19 Sept
Sporting Cristal
3 : 1
Atletico Grau
13 Sept
Moquegua
1 : 2
Sporting Cristal
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Alianza Atl. 3
Pirata 2
Cajamarca 4
ADA Jaen 1
Atletico Grau 2
Carlos Mannucci 1
Sport Boys 1
Comerciantes FC 0
Sporting Cristal 2
Tacna Heroica 1
Sport Huancayo 3
Los Chankas 1
Cienciano 2
AD Tarma 3
Moquegua 1
Deportivo Garcilaso 0
Quarter-finals
Alianza Atl. 2
Cajamarca 1
Atletico Grau 2
Sport Boys 3
Sporting Cristal 4
Sport Huancayo 1
AD Tarma 2
Moquegua 0
Semi-finals
Alianza Atl. 8
Sport Boys 2
Sporting Cristal 6
AD Tarma 0
Final
Alianza Atl. -
Sporting Cristal -