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Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte
Mon, Oct 12, 2026
VS
10:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Novorizontino host Ponte Preta in the Serie B. Novorizontino go into this one as the clear favorite. Ponte Preta have shipped 2.21 goals a game lately, while Novorizontino have conceded 0.93 and scored 1.76. Past meetings favor Novorizontino slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jun 22, 2026, ending 0:2. The numbers (2.19 xG vs 0.51) point toward Novorizontino. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Novorizontino
20%
Draws
22%
Ponte Preta
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Novorizontino

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Novorizontino have won more games recently than Ponte Preta.
  • Win probability leans Novorizontino's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Novorizontino Clean Sheet 20%
Ponte Preta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Novorizontino Ponte Preta
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 15 3
Draws 8 3
Losses 6 22
Goals Scored 1.76 0.54
Goals Conceded 0.93 2.21
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 0.51
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 22, 2026 Serie B
Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino
0:2
Jan 15, 2025 Paulista
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
0:1
Oct 1, 2024 Serie B
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
2:1
Jun 15, 2024 Serie B
Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino
1:0
Mar 3, 2024 Paulista
Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Novorizontino 85 / 100
Ponte Preta 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Novorizontino Ponte Preta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Novorizontino Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ponte Preta's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 28 matches.

Attacking prowess: Novorizontino scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Novorizontino has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Novorizontino VS Ponte Preta
2.13 Goals Scored 0.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Novorizontino

(Home)
02 Oct
Novorizontino
3 : 0
Goias
25 Sept
Novorizontino
0 : 0
Sao Bernardo
18 Sept
Ceara
2 : 1
Novorizontino
13 Sept
Novorizontino
1 : 1
Cuiaba
09 Sept
Botafogo SP
1 : 3
Novorizontino
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Ponte Preta

(Away)
03 Oct
Cuiaba
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
29 Sept
Botafogo SP
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
20 Sept
Ponte Preta
1 : 0
CRB
15 Sept
Londrina
6 : 0
Ponte Preta
11 Sept
Sport Recife
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vila Nova FC 31 17 6 8 44:31 57
2 EC Juventude 31 16 8 7 35:19 56
3 Novorizontino 31 15 9 7 52:27 54
4 Criciuma 31 15 8 8 33:27 53
5 Fortaleza 31 14 11 6 36:27 53
6 Atletico GO 31 14 10 7 39:27 52
7 CRB 31 14 6 11 46:44 48
8 Operario-PR 31 13 9 9 43:41 48
9 Sport Recife 31 12 11 8 42:33 47
10 Cuiaba 31 11 13 7 32:25 46
11 Sao Bernardo 31 12 9 10 43:32 45
12 Goias 31 12 6 13 30:39 42
13 Nautico 31 11 9 11 39:38 42
14 Athletic Club 31 10 12 9 37:35 42
15 Ceara 31 10 9 12 34:39 39
16 Botafogo SP 31 9 8 14 34:37 35
17 Avai 31 8 6 17 30:42 30
18 Londrina 31 7 7 17 39:45 28
19 America MG 31 4 5 22 21:52 17
20 Ponte Preta 31 3 4 24 17:66 13
Promotion - Serie A Betano 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C 2027 (First stage)