Sport Picks

Stadium Background

ADA Jaen vs Union Comercio

Peru Peru

Liga 2 2025 Estadio Victor Montoya Segura, Jaen
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Sub
Cano L. In: Labrin V.
Out: Cano L.
37' Event
Maciel E.
46'
Sub
Delgado G. In: Marcos N.
Out: Delgado G.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 2 2025 game between ADA Jaen and Union Comercio finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward ADA Jaen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
ADA Jaen
30%
Draws
37%
Union Comercio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Union Comercio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Union Comercio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Union Comercio a 37% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
ADA Jaen Clean Sheet 20%
Union Comercio Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ADA Jaen Union Comercio
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 8 17
Draws 14 7
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 0.93 1.34
Goals Conceded 1 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Liga 2
ADA Jaen vs Union Comercio
1:0
May 31, 2026 Liga 2
Union Comercio vs ADA Jaen
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 Liga 2
ADA Jaen vs Union Comercio
2:0
Aug 10, 2025 Liga 2
Union Comercio vs ADA Jaen
2:0
Mar 23, 2025 Club Friendly
ADA Jaen vs Union Comercio
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

ADA Jaen Compare

Top Goalscorer Maciel E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Valencia J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Union Comercio Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ADA Jaen 20 / 100
Union Comercio 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ADA Jaen Union Comercio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Union Comercio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

ADA Jaen found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

ADA Jaen went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Union Comercio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 47% of 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

ADA Jaen VS Union Comercio
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

ADA Jaen

(Home)
13 Sept
ADA Jaen
1 : 0
Union Comercio
05 Sept
Cesar Vallejo
0 : 1
ADA Jaen
16 Aug
U. San Martin
3 : 1
ADA Jaen
08 Aug
ADA Jaen
0 : 0
Llacuabamba
02 Aug
Carlos Mannucci
2 : 0
ADA Jaen
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Union Comercio

(Away)
13 Sept
ADA Jaen
1 : 0
Union Comercio
06 Sept
Union Comercio
1 : 0
U. San Martin
30 Aug
Llacuabamba
1 : 1
Union Comercio
23 Aug
Union Comercio
0 : 0
Carlos Mannucci
17 Aug
Pirata
1 : 2
Union Comercio
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Cajamarca 8 3 3 2 10:8 14
2 Moquegua 8 3 3 2 14:11 13
3 Cesar Vallejo 8 3 2 3 10:10 11
4 Tacna Heroica 8 2 4 2 11:12 10
5 Carlos Mannucci 8 2 2 4 15:19 8
Promotion - Liga 2 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga 2 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Union Comercio 8 7 0 1 18:4 21
2 Comerciantes FC 8 2 3 3 12:7 11
3 ADA Jaen 8 2 4 2 9:9 10
4 Santos FC 8 3 1 4 10:11 10
5 San Marcos 8 1 2 5 4:22 6
Promotion - Liga 2 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga 2 2025 (Play Offs)