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Adanaspor AS vs Aliaga

Turkey Turkey

2. Lig Red Group 2025/2026 Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Akay M.
52' Event
Karaahmet M.
Assist: Koc A.
54' Event
Karaahmet M.
Assist: Suleyman B.

AI Match Summary

The 2. Lig Red Group 2025/2026 game between Adanaspor AS and Aliaga finished 1-8, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aliaga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Adanaspor AS
15%
Draws
64%
Aliaga
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aliaga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Aliaga carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Aliaga's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Adanaspor AS Clean Sheet 10%
Aliaga Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Adanaspor AS Aliaga
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 3 16
Draws 1 6
Losses 25 8
Goals Scored 0.45 2.13
Goals Conceded 4.31 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2026 2. Lig Red Group
Adanaspor AS vs Aliaga
1:8
Nov 8, 2025 2. Lig Red Group
Aliaga vs Adanaspor AS
7:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Adanaspor AS Compare

Top Goalscorer Akay M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Aliaga Compare

Top Goalscorer Karaahmet M.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Koc A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Adanaspor AS 10 / 100
Aliaga 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Adanaspor AS Aliaga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aliaga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 8.50 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Aliaga conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Adanaspor AS scored in 29% of their last 28 games.

Adanaspor AS went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Adanaspor AS VS Aliaga
0.25 Goals Scored 1.88
3.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Adanaspor AS

(Home)
27 Sept
Malatya
8 : 0
Adanaspor AS
20 Sept
Adanaspor AS
1 : 3
Karakopru
16 Sept
Adanaspor AS
:
Yeni Malatyaspor
12 Sept
Adana Adaletgucu
5 : 1
Adanaspor AS
06 Sept
Adanaspor AS
0 : 2
Nigde
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Aliaga

(Away)
27 Sept
Aliaga
2 : 1
Sanliurfaspor
19 Sept
Elazigspor
5 : 0
Aliaga
13 Sept
Aliaga
2 : 0
Isparta 32 Spor
06 Sept
Arnavutkoy Bl.
1 : 4
Aliaga
04 May
Musspor
1 : 0
Aliaga
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bursaspor 34 25 5 4 87:19 80
2 Mardin 1969 34 22 5 7 67:25 71
3 Musspor 34 21 7 6 82:35 70
4 Aliaga 34 21 6 7 81:32 69
5 K. Istklalspor 34 21 4 9 82:33 67
6 Isparta 32 Spor 34 18 9 7 70:36 63
7 Guzide Gebzespor 34 16 10 8 56:31 58
8 Menemenspor 34 15 6 13 57:51 51
9 Ankara Demirspor 34 14 7 13 47:47 49
10 Aksaray Bld. 34 11 14 9 52:38 47
11 Trabzon FK 34 13 8 13 54:51 47
12 Arnavutkoy Bl. 34 13 7 14 40:36 46
13 Fethiyespor 34 11 11 12 52:41 44
14 Kirklarelispor 34 9 9 16 44:49 36
15 Soma Spor 34 8 6 20 41:68 30
16 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 33 4 3 26 22:97 12
17 Adanaspor AS 33 2 1 30 14:159 1
18 Yeni Malatyaspor 34 0 2 32 8:114 -52
Promotion - 1. Lig (Main)
Promotion - 2. Lig Play Offs (Main)