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Adelaide Comets vs Croydon

Australia Australia

NPL South Australia Ellis Park, Adelaide
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Trimboli L.
36' Event
Ljujic D.
38' Event
Pasia J.

AI Match Summary

The NPL South Australia game between Adelaide Comets and Croydon finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Croydon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Adelaide Comets
30%
Draws
16%
Croydon
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Adelaide Comets

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Croydon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Adelaide Comets a 54% chance of winning this.
  • Regular NPL South Australia form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Adelaide Comets Clean Sheet 10%
Croydon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Adelaide Comets Croydon
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 7 14
Draws 8 7
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 1.3 1.94
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.65
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 3, 2026 NPL South Australia
Adelaide Comets vs Croydon
1:4
Apr 11, 2026 NPL South Australia
Croydon vs Adelaide Comets
2:2
Jun 14, 2025 NPL South Australia
Croydon vs Adelaide Comets
3:1
Mar 17, 2025 NPL South Australia
Adelaide Comets vs Croydon
2:0
Aug 3, 2024 NPL South Australia
Croydon vs Adelaide Comets
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Adelaide Comets Compare

Top Goalscorer Ljujic D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Croydon Compare

Top Goalscorer Pasia J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Trimboli L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Adelaide Comets 56 / 100
Croydon 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Adelaide Comets Croydon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Adelaide Comets Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Croydon has conceded goals in 84% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Adelaide Comets's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Adelaide Comets has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Adelaide Comets VS Croydon
1 Goals Scored 2.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 2
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Adelaide Comets

(Home)
15 Aug
Para
2 : 5
Adelaide Comets
11 Aug
Sturt Lions FC
0 : 0
Adelaide Comets
07 Aug
Adelaide Comets
0 : 1
MetroStars
25 Jul
Adelaide Comets
1 : 0
FK Beograd
17 Jul
Campbelltown City
1 : 0
Adelaide Comets
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Croydon

(Away)
22 Aug
MetroStars
2 : 0
Croydon
15 Aug
MetroStars
2 : 0
Croydon
08 Aug
Croydon
1 : 1
Sturt Lions FC
01 Aug
FK Beograd
4 : 3
Croydon
25 Jul
Croydon
2 : 2
Campbelltown City
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Adelaide City 22 14 6 2 44:16 48
2 West Torrens Birkalla 22 14 3 5 54:29 45
3 MetroStars 22 13 5 4 53:23 44
4 Playford Patriots 22 10 5 7 42:31 35
5 FK Beograd 22 10 3 9 35:30 33
6 Croydon 22 8 6 8 46:41 30
7 Adelaide Utd U23 22 7 8 7 33:32 29
8 Campbelltown City 22 8 5 9 35:36 29
9 Sturt Lions FC 22 8 3 11 35:36 27
10 West Adelaide 22 6 7 9 40:44 25
11 Adelaide Comets 22 5 5 12 25:38 20
12 Para 22 0 2 20 16:102 2
Promotion - NPL South Australia (Play Offs)
Promotion - NPL South Australia (Play Offs)
Relegation - SA State League 2027 (Main)