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Adrense vs Desenzano Calvina - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Serie D - Group D 2018/2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D 2018/2019 game between Adrense and Desenzano Calvina finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Adrense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Adrense
30%
Draws
31%
Desenzano Calvina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Adrense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Desenzano Calvina come out ahead of Adrense on wins alone.
  • Model gives Adrense a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D 2018/2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Adrense Clean Sheet 68%
Desenzano Calvina Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Adrense Desenzano Calvina
Matches Played 30 39
Wins 12 18
Draws 8 14
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.43 1.08
Goals Conceded 1.4 0.67
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2019 Serie D - Group D
Adrense vs Desenzano Calvina
2:1
Dec 9, 2018 Serie D - Group D
Desenzano Calvina vs Adrense
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Adrense 59 / 100
Desenzano Calvina 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Adrense Desenzano Calvina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Adrense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Adrense scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Recent resilience: Adrense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Desenzano Calvina let in goals in 54% of their last 39 matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Desenzano Calvina
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 0.63
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Adrense

(Home)
05 May
Adrense
4 : 2
Reggiana
28 Apr
San Marino Calcio
1 : 2
Adrense
18 Apr
Modena
1 : 0
Adrense
14 Apr
Adrense
2 : 1
Desenzano Calvina
07 Apr
Sasso Marconi
0 : 0
Adrense
Page 1 of 6

Desenzano Calvina

(Away)
03 Oct
Folgore Caratese
1 : 2
Desenzano Calvina
26 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 0
Juventus U23
21 Sept
Treviso
0 : 0
Desenzano Calvina
17 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 3
Lecco
13 Sept
Arzignano
1 : 2
Desenzano Calvina
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pergolettese 34 22 7 5 62:32 73
2 Modena 34 21 10 3 60:27 73
3 Reggiana 34 19 9 6 57:28 66
4 Fanfulla 34 16 9 9 58:52 57
5 Fiorenzuola 34 16 8 10 52:31 56
6 Crema 34 12 13 9 52:50 49
7 Adrense 34 12 11 11 45:45 47
8 Vigor Carpaneto 34 11 14 9 42:35 47
9 Axys Zola 34 11 8 15 40:45 41
10 Ciliverghe Mazzano 34 11 8 15 38:48 41
11 Lentigione 34 8 15 11 34:36 39
12 Desenzano Calvina 34 8 15 11 40:51 39
13 Pavia 34 9 9 16 32:46 36
14 Mezzolara 34 7 14 13 39:50 35
15 Sasso Marconi 34 8 10 16 31:50 34
16 San Marino Calcio 34 5 16 13 24:32 31
17 USD Classe 1974 34 6 12 16 25:51 30
18 OltrepoVoghera 34 3 14 17 22:44 23
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2018/2019 (Additional match)
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2018/2019 (Additional match)
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2018/2019 (Play Offs)