Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AEA Aracatuba vs Nacional SP

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Enzo Faria
30' Event
Santiago
61' Event
Hugo Cordeiro

AI Match Summary

Nacional SP in this Paulista A4 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nacional SP.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
AEA Aracatuba
15%
Draws
85%
Nacional SP
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nacional SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Nacional SP lately — more wins on the board than AEA Aracatuba.
  • Win probability leans Nacional SP's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Paulista A4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
AEA Aracatuba Clean Sheet 16%
Nacional SP Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEA Aracatuba Nacional SP
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 7 8
Draws 4 8
Losses 20 14
Goals Scored 0.74 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2026 Paulista A4
AEA Aracatuba vs Nacional SP
2:3
Feb 1, 2025 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs AEA Aracatuba
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEA Aracatuba Compare

Top Goalscorer Enzo Faria
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hugo Cordeiro
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Nacional SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Santiago
2 Goals
Assists Leader Marllon
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEA Aracatuba 10 / 100
Nacional SP 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEA Aracatuba Nacional SP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional SP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Nacional SP has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

AEA Aracatuba scored in 48% of their last 31 games.

Nacional SP lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AEA Aracatuba VS Nacional SP
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AEA Aracatuba

(Home)
04 Apr
AEA Aracatuba
0 : 3
Jabaquara
28 Mar
Penapolense
6 : 0
AEA Aracatuba
25 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
0 : 4
Vocem
21 Mar
ECUS SP
2 : 0
AEA Aracatuba
18 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
2 : 3
Nacional SP
Page 1 of 7

Nacional SP

(Away)
04 Apr
Nacional SP
0 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
28 Mar
Barretos EC
1 : 0
Nacional SP
25 Mar
Nacional SP
0 : 0
ECUS SP
21 Mar
Nacional SP
4 : 1
Colorado Caieiras
18 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
2 : 3
Nacional SP
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)