Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aegir vs Fylkir

Iceland Iceland

Division 1 GeoSalmo vollurinn, Thorlakshofn
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Sub
Gunnarsson B. In: Vidarsson B.
Out: Gunnarsson B.
11' Event
Hilmarsson M.
Assist: Arnarsson B.
14' Event
Gunnarsson T.

AI Match Summary

The Division 1 game between Aegir and Fylkir finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fylkir.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Aegir
20%
Draws
70%
Fylkir
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Fylkir

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fylkir come out ahead of Aegir on wins alone.
  • Fylkir are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Fylkir have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Aegir Clean Sheet 10%
Fylkir Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aegir Fylkir
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 18
Draws 3 2
Losses 22 10
Goals Scored 1.3 2.4
Goals Conceded 2.83 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 3.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 3, 2026 Division 1
Aegir vs Fylkir
2:4
Apr 24, 2026 Division 1
Fylkir vs Aegir
3:0
Jun 26, 2022 Icelandic Cup
Aegir vs Fylkir
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aegir Compare

Top Goalscorer Adeyemo J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Fylkir Compare

Top Goalscorer Hilmarsson M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gunnarsson T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.85
Avg xA / game 1.74

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aegir 10 / 100
Fylkir 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aegir Fylkir

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fylkir Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.33 goals as a typical output.

Aegir found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Fylkir's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Aegir has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Aegir VS Fylkir
0.88 Goals Scored 2.13
4.13 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Aegir

(Home)
05 Sept
Aegir
1 : 1
Grindavik
28 Aug
Throttur
7 : 2
Aegir
21 Aug
Aegir
0 : 7
Afturelding
17 Aug
Leiknir Reykjavik
6 : 1
Aegir
13 Aug
Aegir
0 : 2
Volsungur
Page 1 of 6

Fylkir

(Away)
19 Sept
Throttur
1 : 0
Fylkir
13 Sept
Fylkir
2 : 2
Kopavogur
09 Sept
Kopavogur
2 : 3
Fylkir
05 Sept
Kopavogur
2 : 1
Fylkir
28 Aug
Fylkir
3 : 1
Grotta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Afturelding 22 14 3 5 65:33 45
2 Throttur 22 13 4 5 50:25 43
3 Fylkir 22 13 1 8 49:36 40
4 Kopavogur 22 12 2 8 52:40 38
5 Njardvik 22 12 2 8 38:29 38
6 Leiknir Reykjavik 22 8 4 10 34:33 28
7 IR Reykjavik 22 8 4 10 40:46 28
8 Grotta 22 8 3 11 36:43 27
9 Vestri 22 8 3 11 30:43 27
10 Volsungur 22 7 5 10 32:44 26
11 Grindavik 22 5 10 7 25:35 25
12 Aegir 22 2 3 17 25:69 9
Promotion - Besta deild karla 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Division 2 2027 (Main)