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AF Elbasani vs Luzi

Albania Albania

Kategoria e Parë 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Treni P.
40' Event
Leo Melo
61' Event
Lila B.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

AF Elbasani in this Kategoria e Parë 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored AF Elbasani.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
AF Elbasani
30%
Draws
31%
Luzi
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AF Elbasani

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Luzi haven't matched AF Elbasani's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • AF Elbasani have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39.2%
AF Elbasani Clean Sheet 68%
Luzi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AF Elbasani Luzi
Matches Played 39 31
Wins 20 11
Draws 8 2
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 1.79 1.58
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2024 Kategoria e Parë
AF Elbasani vs Luzi
2:1
Feb 17, 2024 Kategoria e Parë
AF Elbasani vs Luzi
5:2
Nov 6, 2023 Kategoria e Parë
Luzi vs AF Elbasani
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AF Elbasani Compare

Top Goalscorer Leo Melo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Luzi Compare

Top Goalscorer Treni P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AF Elbasani 41 / 100
Luzi 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AF Elbasani Luzi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AF Elbasani Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AF Elbasani found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (39 games).

Luzi let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 5.33 goals.

Recent resilience: AF Elbasani stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AF Elbasani VS -
1.75 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

AF Elbasani

(Home)
22 Aug
Laci
1 : 1
AF Elbasani
06 Aug
AF Elbasani
1 : 3
Partizani
16 Jul
BATE
1 : 0
AF Elbasani
07 Jul
AF Elbasani
1 : 1
BATE
01 Jul
AF Elbasani
2 : 1
Petrovac
Page 1 of 8

Luzi

(Away)
15 Oct
Iliria Kruja
5 : 1
Luzi
27 Apr
Kastrioti
1 : 0
Luzi
20 Nov
Bylis
3 : 1
Luzi
16 Oct
Luzi
5 : 0
Shkumbini Peqin
08 May
Luzi
3 : 3
Vora
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AF Elbasani 33 24 7 2 76:32 79
2 Bylis 33 22 5 6 55:31 71
3 Flamurtari 33 16 10 7 46:29 58
4 Vora 33 15 5 13 61:50 50
5 Apolonia Fier 33 12 10 11 44:31 46
6 Korabi Peshkopi 33 12 8 13 42:38 44
7 Kastrioti 33 10 10 13 43:47 40
8 Burreli 33 12 4 17 28:43 40
9 Lushnja 33 10 8 15 38:53 38
10 Besa Kavaje 33 10 8 15 34:47 38
11 Luzi 33 9 4 20 41:56 31
12 Tomori Berat 33 4 5 24 21:72 17
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore 2024/2025 (Main)
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore 2023/2024 (Relegation)
Relegation - Kategoria e Parë 2023/2024 (Relegation)