Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AFC Wimbledon vs Gateshead

England England

FA Cup The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Adom K.
Assist: Nouble F.
46'
Sub
Harbottle R. In: Ogundere I.
Out: Harbottle R.
46'
Sub
Bugiel O. In: Orsi-Dadomo D.
Out: Bugiel O.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-2. The second leg ended 0-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
AFC Wimbledon
15%
Draws
28%
Gateshead
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AFC Wimbledon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Gateshead come out ahead of AFC Wimbledon on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Gateshead arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor AFC Wimbledon, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
AFC Wimbledon Clean Sheet 16%
Gateshead Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AFC Wimbledon Gateshead
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 9 12
Draws 4 7
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.14 1.35
Goals Conceded 1.71 1.58
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 1, 2025 FA Cup
AFC Wimbledon vs Gateshead
0:2
Jan 28, 2011 National League
Gateshead vs AFC Wimbledon
0:2
Oct 16, 2010 National League
AFC Wimbledon vs Gateshead
1:0
Apr 24, 2010 National League
Gateshead vs AFC Wimbledon
1:0
Dec 5, 2009 National League
AFC Wimbledon vs Gateshead
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AFC Wimbledon Compare

Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Gateshead Compare

Top Goalscorer Adom K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fenton J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AFC Wimbledon 30 / 100
Gateshead 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AFC Wimbledon Gateshead

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AFC Wimbledon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: AFC Wimbledon scored in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Gateshead's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Gateshead has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

AFC Wimbledon VS Gateshead
1 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.38
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

AFC Wimbledon

(Home)
15 Aug
Huddersfield
3 : 0
AFC Wimbledon
08 Aug
AFC Wimbledon
2 : 1
Newport
01 Aug
AFC Wimbledon
2 : 3
QPR
28 Jul
Wealdstone
1 : 0
AFC Wimbledon
25 Jul
AFC Wimbledon
2 : 0
Charlton
Page 1 of 6

Gateshead

(Away)
15 Aug
Gateshead
2 : 0
Woking
08 Aug
Eastleigh
2 : 1
Gateshead
05 Aug
Consett
6 : 1
Gateshead
01 Aug
Spennymoor
2 : 1
Gateshead
28 Jul
Gateshead
1 : 4
South Shields
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/128-finals
Wrexham -
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Nottingham -
Ipswich -
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Blackpool 1
Scunthorpe 0
Reading 2
Carlisle 3
Hull City -
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Blackburn -
Charlton -
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Chelsea -
Port Vale 5
Maldon & Tiptree 1
Bromley 1
Bristol Rovers 2
Fleetwood Town 2
Barnet 1
Luton 4
Forest Green 3
Bristol City -
TBD -
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Watford -
Colchester 2
Milton Keynes Dons 3
Oldham 3
Northampton 1
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Oxford Utd -
Everton -
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Sunderland -
Boreham Wood 3
Crawley Town 0
Newport 3
Gillingham 2
Brackley 3
Notts County 2
Burton 6
St. Albans 0
West Ham -
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QPR -
Slough Town 2
Altrincham 1
Macclesfield 6
AFC Totton 3
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Crystal Palace -
Sheffield Wed -
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Brentford -
Tranmere 1
Stockport County 3
Cambridge Utd 3
Chester 0
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Birmingham -
Derby -
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Leeds -
Norwich -
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AFC Wimbledon 0
Gateshead 2
Eastleigh 0
Walsall 3
Swansea -
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West Brom -
Tottenham -
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Aston Villa -
Newcastle Utd -
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Bournemouth -
Manchester City -
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Halifax 0
Exeter 2
Wycombe 2
Plymouth 0
Salford 2
Lincoln City 1
Tamworth 0
Leyton Orient 1
Rotherham 1
Swindon 2
Bolton 2
Huddersfield 1
Grimsby 3
Ebbsfleet 1
Wealdstone 1
Southend 0
Chelmsford 4
Braintree 1
Weston-super-Mare 2
Aldershot 1
Wolves -
TBD -
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Sutton 2
Telford 1
South Shields 1
Shrewsbury 3
Liverpool -
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Peterborough 1
Cardiff 0
Barnsley 3
York City 2
Manchester United -
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Brighton -
Stoke City -
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Coventry -
Fulham -
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Middlesbrough -
Stevenage 0
Chesterfield 1
Crewe 1
Doncaster 2
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Southampton -
Cheltenham 1
Bradford City 0
Buxton 2
Chatham 1
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Leicester -
Burnley -
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Millwall -
Sheffield Utd -
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Gainsborough 1
Accrington 2
Mansfield 3
Harrogate 2
Portsmouth -
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Arsenal -
Preston -
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Wigan 2
Hemel Hempstead 1
Spennymoor 0
Barrow 2
1/64-finals
Wrexham -
TBD -
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Nottingham -
Ipswich -
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Blackpool 4
Carlisle 1
Hull City -
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Blackburn -
Charlton -
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Chelsea -
Port Vale 1
Bristol Rovers 0
Fleetwood Town 3
Luton 2
Bristol City -
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Watford -
Milton Keynes Dons 3
Oldham 1
TBD -
Oxford Utd -
Everton -
TBD -
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Sunderland -
Boreham Wood 3
Newport 0
Brackley 1
Burton 3
West Ham -
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QPR -
Slough Town 1
Macclesfield 3
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Crystal Palace -
Sheffield Wed -
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Brentford -
Stockport County 0
Cambridge Utd 1
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Birmingham -
Derby -
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Leeds -
Norwich -
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Gateshead 0
Walsall 2
Swansea -
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West Brom -
Tottenham -
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Aston Villa -
Newcastle Utd -
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Bournemouth -
Manchester City -
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Exeter 4
Wycombe 0
Salford 4
Leyton Orient 0
Swindon 4
Bolton 0
Grimsby 4
Wealdstone 0
Chelmsford 0
Weston-super-Mare 2
Wolves -
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Sutton 1
Shrewsbury 2
Liverpool -
TBD -
Peterborough 0
Barnsley 1
Manchester United -
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Brighton -
Stoke City -
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Coventry -
Fulham -
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Middlesbrough -
Chesterfield 1
Doncaster 2
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Southampton -
Cheltenham 6
Buxton 2
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Leicester -
Burnley -
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Millwall -
Sheffield Utd -
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Accrington 2
Mansfield 3
Portsmouth -
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Arsenal -
Preston -
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Wigan 3
Barrow 2
1/32-finals
Wrexham 4
Nottingham 3
Ipswich 2
Blackpool 1
Hull City 1
Blackburn 0
Charlton 1
Chelsea 5
Port Vale 1
Fleetwood Town 0
Bristol City 5
Watford 1
Milton Keynes Dons 1
Oxford Utd 2
Everton 1
Sunderland 2
Boreham Wood 0
Burton 5
West Ham 2
QPR 1
Macclesfield 2
Crystal Palace 1
Sheffield Wed 0
Brentford 2
Cambridge Utd 2
Birmingham 3
Derby 1
Leeds 3
Norwich 5
Walsall 1
Swansea 2
West Brom 3
Tottenham 1
Aston Villa 2
Newcastle Utd 4
Bournemouth 3
Manchester City 10
Exeter 1
Salford 3
Swindon 2
Grimsby 3
Weston-super-Mare 2
Wolves 6
Shrewsbury 1
Liverpool 4
Barnsley 1
Manchester United 1
Brighton 2
Stoke City 1
Coventry 0
Fulham 3
Middlesbrough 1
Doncaster 2
Southampton 3
Cheltenham 0
Leicester 2
Burnley 5
Millwall 1
Sheffield Utd 3
Mansfield 4
Portsmouth 1
Arsenal 4
Preston 0
Wigan 1
1/16-finals
Wrexham 1
Ipswich 0
Hull City 0
Chelsea 4
Port Vale 1
Bristol City 0
Oxford Utd 0
Sunderland 1
Burton 0
West Ham 1
Macclesfield 0
Brentford 1
Birmingham 1
Leeds 2
Norwich 3
West Brom 1
Aston Villa 1
Newcastle Utd 3
Manchester City 2
Salford 0
Grimsby 0
Wolves 1
Liverpool 3
Brighton 0
Stoke City 1
Fulham 2
Southampton 2
Leicester 1
Burnley 1
Mansfield 2
Arsenal 4
Wigan 0
1/8-finals
Wrexham 2
Chelsea 4
Port Vale 1
Sunderland 0
West Ham 3
Brentford 2
Leeds 3
Norwich 0
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 3
Wolves 1
Liverpool 3
Fulham 0
Southampton 1
Mansfield 1
Arsenal 2
Quarter-finals
Chelsea 7
Port Vale 0
West Ham 2
Leeds 3
Manchester City 4
Liverpool 0
Southampton 2
Arsenal 1
Semi-finals
Chelsea 1
Leeds 0
Manchester City 2
Southampton 1
Final
Chelsea 0
Manchester City 1