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AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

League One The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London
Sat, Oct 3, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AFC Wimbledon host Stevenage in the League One. This one's hard to separate. Stevenage have shipped 1.11 goals a game lately, while AFC Wimbledon have conceded 1.54 and scored 0.71. Past meetings favor Stevenage slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Oct 3, 2026, ending 0:0. The numbers (1.06 xG vs 1.50) point toward Stevenage. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
AFC Wimbledon
20%
Draws
48%
Stevenage
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Stevenage

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Stevenage have won more games recently than AFC Wimbledon.
  • Win probability leans Stevenage's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
AFC Wimbledon Clean Sheet 16%
Stevenage Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AFC Wimbledon Stevenage
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 7 13
Draws 5 7
Losses 16 8
Goals Scored 0.71 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 League One
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage
0:0
Mar 14, 2026 League One
Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon
1:0
Dec 26, 2025 League One
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage
0:0
Sep 2, 2025 EFL Trophy
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage
1:5
Sep 5, 2023 EFL Trophy
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AFC Wimbledon 23 / 100
Stevenage 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AFC Wimbledon Stevenage

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stevenage Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stevenage's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: AFC Wimbledon stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: AFC Wimbledon scored in 50% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

AFC Wimbledon VS Stevenage
0.75 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AFC Wimbledon

(Home)
06 Oct
AFC Wimbledon
0 : 1
Barnet
26 Sept
Cambridge Utd
1 : 1
AFC Wimbledon
17 Sept
AFC Wimbledon
0 : 0
Milton Keynes Dons
12 Sept
AFC Wimbledon
1 : 0
Doncaster
07 Sept
Bromley
0 : 2
AFC Wimbledon
Page 1 of 6

Stevenage

(Away)
06 Oct
Stevenage
2 : 1
Leicester
22 Sept
Walsall
1 : 6
Stevenage
19 Sept
Leyton Orient
1 : 0
Stevenage
10 Sept
Stevenage
2 : 1
Luton
05 Sept
Barnsley
1 : 5
Stevenage
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Plymouth 9 5 1 3 16:11 16
2 Bradford City 8 5 1 2 8:5 16
3 Huddersfield 8 4 3 1 14:7 15
4 Sheffield Wed 7 4 2 1 13:6 14
5 Stockport County 8 4 1 3 17:10 13
6 Cambridge Utd 8 3 4 1 13:11 13
7 Reading 8 3 3 2 17:10 12
8 Burton 9 3 3 3 14:15 12
9 AFC Wimbledon 8 3 3 2 6:8 12
10 Oxford Utd 6 3 2 1 13:7 11
11 Leyton Orient 8 3 1 4 13:11 10
12 Wycombe 8 2 4 2 13:16 10
13 Stevenage 7 2 3 2 11:8 9
14 Leicester 7 2 3 2 9:11 9
15 Blackpool 7 2 2 3 13:13 8
16 Luton 7 2 2 3 12:14 8
17 Mansfield 7 2 2 3 10:13 8
18 Barnsley 7 2 2 3 7:12 8
19 Bromley 7 2 2 3 8:18 8
20 Notts County 7 1 4 2 7:9 7
21 Doncaster 7 1 3 3 8:9 6
22 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 8:10 6
23 Peterborough 8 1 2 5 4:13 5
24 Wigan 7 1 1 5 5:12 4
Promotion - Championship 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two 2027/2028 (Main)