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Afragolese vs Gravina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Santoro D.
44' Event
Basanisi A.
46' Event
Scaringella M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 game between Afragolese and Gravina finished 0-6, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gravina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Afragolese
35%
Draws
37%
Gravina
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Gravina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Afragolese haven't matched Gravina's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Gravina have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Afragolese Clean Sheet 10%
Gravina Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Afragolese Gravina
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 14
Draws 12 6
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.03 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Afragolese vs Gravina
0:6
Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Gravina vs Afragolese
1:0
Feb 5, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Afragolese vs Gravina
0:2
Oct 2, 2022 Serie D - Group H
Gravina vs Afragolese
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Afragolese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Gravina Compare

Top Goalscorer Santoro D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Basanisi A.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Afragolese 34 / 100
Gravina 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Afragolese Gravina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gravina Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gravina let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.75 goals when they meet.

Afragolese went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Afragolese found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Afragolese VS Gravina
0.75 Goals Scored 2.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Afragolese

(Home)
27 Sept
Citta di Anagni
4 : 0
Afragolese
20 Sept
Afragolese
4 : 0
US Venafro
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1
Sarnese
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
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Gravina

(Away)
27 Sept
Real Normanna
1 : 0
Gravina
20 Sept
Gravina
2 : 2
Real Forio 2014
16 Sept
Turris
0 : 0
Gravina
12 Sept
Gravina
3 : 1
San Felice Gladiator
06 Sept
Fidelis Andria
1 : 3
Gravina
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)