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Aglianese Calcio vs Carpi

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Calanca A.
49' Event
Mascari A.
67' Event
Zucchini G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 game between Aglianese Calcio and Carpi finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carpi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Aglianese Calcio
40%
Draws
29%
Carpi
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Aglianese Calcio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 11%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Aglianese Calcio Clean Sheet 20%
Carpi Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aglianese Calcio Carpi
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 9
Draws 8 8
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 0 0.25
Goals Conceded 0 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Aglianese Calcio vs Carpi
1:2
Nov 19, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Carpi vs Aglianese Calcio
1:0
Feb 8, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Carpi vs Aglianese Calcio
2:0
Oct 5, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Aglianese Calcio vs Carpi
1:0
Apr 14, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Carpi vs Aglianese Calcio
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aglianese Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Mascari A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Carpi Compare

Top Goalscorer Calanca A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zucchini G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.23
Avg xA / game 0.14

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aglianese Calcio 32 / 100
Carpi 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aglianese Calcio Carpi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carpi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 31 matches.

Aglianese Calcio's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Difficult form: Carpi registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

- VS Carpi
0 Goals Scored 0.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Carpi32215666:3168
2Ravenna32199456:1366
3Corticella321831159:4057
4Victor San Marino32176944:3757
5Lentigione32168849:3156
6Forli FC32167948:3555
7Prato321281237:4144
8Sangiuliano City321281232:3744
9Fanfulla3211101128:3543
10Sant'Angelo321181347:4441
11Aglianese Calcio321181332:3941
12Imolese321261431:3340
13Sammaurese321141737:4837
14SCD Progresso321141727:4337
15San Donnino325101732:5825
16Certaldo32662022:5524
17Mezzolara32562123:5021
18Pistoiese00000:00