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Aglianese Calcio vs Imolese - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Della Pietra V.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 game between Aglianese Calcio and Imolese finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aglianese Calcio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Aglianese Calcio
20%
Draws
40%
Imolese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aglianese Calcio come out ahead of Imolese on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Aglianese Calcio Clean Sheet 20%
Imolese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aglianese Calcio Imolese
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 7
Draws 8 6
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 1.07 0.84
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.58
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 0.68
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 14, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Aglianese Calcio vs Imolese
1:0
Sep 17, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Imolese vs Aglianese Calcio
1:0
Feb 13, 2005 Lega Pro C2/B
Imolese vs Aglianese Calcio
1:1
Oct 3, 2004 Lega Pro C2/B
Aglianese Calcio vs Imolese
0:2
Feb 28, 2004 Lega Pro C2/B
Aglianese Calcio vs Imolese
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aglianese Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Della Pietra V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.77

Imolese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aglianese Calcio 32 / 100
Imolese 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aglianese Calcio Imolese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Aglianese Calcio scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Imolese has conceded goals in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Imolese lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

- VS Imolese
0 Goals Scored 0.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.88
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aglianese Calcio

(Home)
05 May
Aglianese Calcio
0 : 4
Forli FC
28 Apr
Certaldo
3 : 2
Aglianese Calcio
21 Apr
Aglianese Calcio
0 : 1
SCD Progresso
14 Apr
Mezzolara
0 : 0
Aglianese Calcio
07 Apr
Aglianese Calcio
3 : 0
Sammaurese
Page 1 of 6

Imolese

(Away)
10 May
Imolese
0 : 2
Sasso Marconi
03 May
Imolese
1 : 0
Rovato Vertovese
26 Apr
Sasso Marconi
1 : 1
Imolese
19 Apr
Imolese
0 : 1
Desenzano Calvina
12 Apr
Tropical Coriano
2 : 0
Imolese
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carpi 32 21 5 6 66:31 68
2 Ravenna 32 19 9 4 56:13 66
3 Corticella 32 18 3 11 59:40 57
4 Victor San Marino 32 17 6 9 44:37 57
5 Lentigione 32 16 8 8 49:31 56
6 Forli FC 32 16 7 9 48:35 55
7 Prato 32 12 8 12 37:41 44
8 Sangiuliano City 32 12 8 12 32:37 44
9 Fanfulla 32 11 10 11 28:35 43
10 Sant'Angelo 32 11 8 13 47:44 41
11 Aglianese Calcio 32 11 8 13 32:39 41
12 Imolese 32 12 6 14 31:33 40
13 Sammaurese 32 11 4 17 37:48 37
14 SCD Progresso 32 11 4 17 27:43 37
15 San Donnino 32 5 10 17 32:58 25
16 Certaldo 32 6 6 20 22:55 24
17 Mezzolara 32 5 6 21 23:50 21
18 Pistoiese 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 (Play Offs)