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Stadium Background

Aglianese Calcio vs Prato - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Mascari A.
55' Event
Marino R.

AI Match Summary

Aglianese Calcio in this Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aglianese Calcio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Aglianese Calcio
30%
Draws
51%
Prato
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Prato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Prato have won more games recently than Aglianese Calcio.
  • Model gives Prato a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Aglianese Calcio Clean Sheet 16%
Prato Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aglianese Calcio Prato
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 18
Draws 8 6
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 1.07 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.79 1.49
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Aglianese Calcio vs Prato
2:0
Oct 1, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Prato vs Aglianese Calcio
3:0
Apr 30, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Prato vs Aglianese Calcio
1:1
Dec 17, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Aglianese Calcio vs Prato
2:1
May 15, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Prato vs Aglianese Calcio
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aglianese Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Mascari A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marino R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.4

Prato Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aglianese Calcio 11 / 100
Prato 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aglianese Calcio Prato

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Prato Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aglianese Calcio found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Prato has conceded goals in 52% of their last 29 outings.

Aglianese Calcio went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Prato
0 Goals Scored 1.88
0 Goals Conceded 0.38
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Aglianese Calcio

(Home)
05 May
Aglianese Calcio
0 : 4
Forli FC
28 Apr
Certaldo
3 : 2
Aglianese Calcio
21 Apr
Aglianese Calcio
0 : 1
SCD Progresso
14 Apr
Mezzolara
0 : 0
Aglianese Calcio
07 Apr
Aglianese Calcio
3 : 0
Sammaurese
Page 1 of 6

Prato

(Away)
07 Oct
Terranuova Traiana
0 : 3
Prato
03 Oct
Terranuova Traiana
1 : 1
Prato
27 Sept
Prato
2 : 1
Ghiviborgo
20 Sept
Sasso Marconi
0 : 1
Prato
16 Sept
Prato
1 : 1
Grassina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carpi 32 21 5 6 66:31 68
2 Ravenna 32 19 9 4 56:13 66
3 Corticella 32 18 3 11 59:40 57
4 Victor San Marino 32 17 6 9 44:37 57
5 Lentigione 32 16 8 8 49:31 56
6 Forli FC 32 16 7 9 48:35 55
7 Prato 32 12 8 12 37:41 44
8 Sangiuliano City 32 12 8 12 32:37 44
9 Fanfulla 32 11 10 11 28:35 43
10 Sant'Angelo 32 11 8 13 47:44 41
11 Aglianese Calcio 32 11 8 13 32:39 41
12 Imolese 32 12 6 14 31:33 40
13 Sammaurese 32 11 4 17 37:48 37
14 SCD Progresso 32 11 4 17 27:43 37
15 San Donnino 32 5 10 17 32:58 25
16 Certaldo 32 6 6 20 22:55 24
17 Mezzolara 32 5 6 21 23:50 21
18 Pistoiese 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 (Play Offs)