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Aglianese Calcio vs Sammaurese Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Grilli A.
90' Event
Della Pietra V.
90' Event
Maloku R.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 game between Aglianese Calcio and Sammaurese finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aglianese Calcio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Aglianese Calcio
20%
Draws
40%
Sammaurese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Aglianese Calcio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Aglianese Calcio a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Aglianese Calcio Clean Sheet 19%
Sammaurese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aglianese Calcio Sammaurese
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 11 4
Draws 8 7
Losses 11 21
Goals Scored 1.07 0.78
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 7, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Aglianese Calcio vs Sammaurese
3:0
Nov 26, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Sammaurese vs Aglianese Calcio
0:2
Feb 19, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Sammaurese vs Aglianese Calcio
1:1
Oct 16, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Aglianese Calcio vs Sammaurese
0:3
Feb 12, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Aglianese Calcio vs Sammaurese
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aglianese Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Grilli A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Della Pietra V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Sammaurese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.13
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aglianese Calcio 42 / 100
Sammaurese 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aglianese Calcio Sammaurese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sammaurese has conceded goals in 84% of their last 32 outings.

Attacking prowess: Aglianese Calcio scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Sammaurese registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Sammaurese
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 1.75
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Aglianese Calcio

(Home)
05 May
Aglianese Calcio
0 : 4
Forli FC
28 Apr
Certaldo
3 : 2
Aglianese Calcio
21 Apr
Aglianese Calcio
0 : 1
SCD Progresso
14 Apr
Mezzolara
0 : 0
Aglianese Calcio
07 Apr
Aglianese Calcio
3 : 0
Sammaurese
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Sammaurese

(Away)
03 May
San Marino Calcio
1 : 0
Sammaurese
26 Apr
Sammaurese
2 : 0
Atletico Ascoli
19 Apr
Ancona
3 : 0
Sammaurese
15 Apr
Termoli
1 : 0
Sammaurese
12 Apr
Sammaurese
0 : 0
Aquila Calcio
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carpi 32 21 5 6 66:31 68
2 Ravenna 32 19 9 4 56:13 66
3 Corticella 32 18 3 11 59:40 57
4 Victor San Marino 32 17 6 9 44:37 57
5 Lentigione 32 16 8 8 49:31 56
6 Forli FC 32 16 7 9 48:35 55
7 Prato 32 12 8 12 37:41 44
8 Sangiuliano City 32 12 8 12 32:37 44
9 Fanfulla 32 11 10 11 28:35 43
10 Sant'Angelo 32 11 8 13 47:44 41
11 Aglianese Calcio 32 11 8 13 32:39 41
12 Imolese 32 12 6 14 31:33 40
13 Sammaurese 32 11 4 17 37:48 37
14 SCD Progresso 32 11 4 17 27:43 37
15 San Donnino 32 5 10 17 32:58 25
16 Certaldo 32 6 6 20 22:55 24
17 Mezzolara 32 5 6 21 23:50 21
18 Pistoiese 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 (Play Offs)